Pub. 5 2020 Issue 4

8 www.ctaahq.org The Eviction Wave Is Still at Sea: Will It Make Land? T he eviction moratorium announced this week by the Trump administration ended fears of an immediate wave of evictions. But the eviction ban, in effect through the end of the year, merely postpones the inevitable problem if double-digit unemployment rates persist and federal aid remains stalled in the U.S. Senate. Tenants with diminished income will miss rent payments, which has led to dire predictions that a wave of evictions is on the horizon. For example, public policy think tank The Aspen Institute and the COVID-19 Eviction Defense Project gener- ated headlines last month with a publication warning that “an estimated 30-40 million people in America could be at risk of eviction in the next several months.” An eviction tsunami, however, has not yet materialized. According to data from 17 major metros compiled by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University, between the weeks of Dec. 29, 2019, and March 15, property owners filed an average of 5,700 evictions per week. Between March 22 and mid-August, as the economy began feeling the effects of the pandemic, average eviction filings in those same metros fell to 1,700 per week, a drop of 70%. Filings have declined for many reasons, including the pleth- ora of federal, state and local eviction moratoriums; federal unemployment aid and renter assistance programs; a backlog in the courts; and the reluctance of property owners to act aggressively during the crisis. The action of policymakers and industry advocates have averted an immediate crisis. However, questions persist, including the potential scope of evictions and what can be done to prevent a wave after the moratorium is lifted. In other words, how long can evictions remain at bay if the underlying problem — many residents don’t have enough money to pay rent — doesn’t change?