25 California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Volume 18, Number 4 Released November 2022 Covering Third Quarter 2022 TM Publication Sponsored By: California New Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Increase in 2023 California New Light Vehicle Registrations and U.S. New Vehicle Sales YTD ‘21 and YTD ‘22 thru September TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical data source: AutoCount data from Experian. *2022 and 2023 forecasts by Auto Outlook. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2023 ANNUAL TRENDS Predicting the impact of supply chain issues has been difficult, to say the least. Lost production due to the microchip shortage during 2022 was significantly higher than expected at the beginning of the year. As a result, vehicle sales projections have been lowered during the year. Registrations for all of 2022 are now predicted to decline 9.7 percent from 2021. Demand is softening due to deteriorating economic conditions, but pent-up demand is accumulating. Assuming supply chain issues ease during the next 12 months, Auto Outlook believes that the market will increase next year. It would likely take a severe economic downturn for the market to fall, while the chances for an upside surprise are above average. Current forecast is for registrations in the state to reach 1.77 million units next year, a 5.4 percent increase from this year. The California new vehicle market slipped 16.1 percent during the first nine months of 2022 versus 2021, as limited inventories and strong year earlier sales impacted results. U.S. market declined by 13 percent during the same period. Light trucks accounted for 68.3 percent of the California new vehicle market compared to 78.9 percent in the Nation. As shown on the graph to the left, the state market posted its fourth consecutive double digit percentage decline in the Third Quarter of this year. That streak will almost certainly end in the Fourth Quarter of this year, however, as registrations should increase versus weak year earlier levels. QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data source: AutoCount data from Experian. 1.45 1.04 1.17 1.29 1.62 1.80 1.93 2.16 2.21 2.202.152.09 1.64 1.86 1.68 1.77 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22* '23* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. YTD '21 YTD '22 Change YTD '21 YTD '22 Change Registrations TOTAL 1,484,862 1,245,748 -16.1% 11,768,255 10,236,245 -13.0% Car 509,554 394,315 -22.6% 2,727,094 2,162,757 -20.7% Light Truck 975,308 851,433 -12.7% 9,041,161 8,073,488 -10.7% Domestic 454,480 448,781 -1.3% 4,736,335 4,553,339 -3.9% European 225,279 187,294 -16.9% 1,223,286 1,075,711 -12.1% Japanese 682,790 496,247 -27.3% 4,633,154 3,519,869 -24.0% Korean 122,313 113,426 -7.3% 1,175,480 1,087,326 -7.5% Market Share Car 34.3 31.7 -2.6 23.2 21.1 -2.1 Light Truck 65.7 68.3 2.6 76.8 78.9 2.1 Domestic 30.6 36.0 5.4 40.2 44.5 4.3 European 15.2 15.0 -0.2 10.4 10.5 0.1 Japanese 46.1 39.8 -6.3 39.4 34.4 -5.0 Korean 8.2 9.1 0.9 10.0 10.6 0.6 Source for California new vehicle registrations: AutoCount data from Experian. Source for U.S. sales: Automotive News. 96.0% 7.8% -15.5% -13.8% -21.6% -11.9% 2Q '21 vs. 2Q '20 3Q '21 vs. 3Q '20 4Q '21 vs. 4Q '20 1Q '22 vs. 1Q '21 2Q '22 vs. 2Q '21 3Q '22 vs. 3Q '21 % change vs. year earlier KEY TRENDS IN NEW VEHICLE MARKET
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