California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Volume 19, Number 2 Released May 2023 Covering First Quarter 2023 TM Publication Sponsored By: California New Vehicle Market Moved Higher in First Quarter 2023 vs. Year Earlier TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical Data sourced from Experian Automotive. *2023 forecast by Auto Outlook. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2023 ANNUAL TRENDS QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 1.45 1.04 1.17 1.29 1.62 1.80 1.93 2.16 2.21 2.202.152.09 1.64 1.86 1.67 1.78 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. YTD '22 YTD '23 Change YTD '22 YTD '23 Change Registrations TOTAL 425,216 450,000 5.8% 3,317,506 3,594,969 8.4% Car 133,771 139,367 4.2% 681,132 768,851 12.9% Light Truck 291,445 310,633 6.6% 2,636,374 2,826,118 7.2% Domestic 151,781 169,612 11.7% 1,450,896 1,611,967 11.1% European 61,015 66,490 9.0% 320,912 358,068 11.6% Japanese 178,399 171,568 -3.8% 1,223,105 1,242,580 1.6% Korean 34,021 42,330 24.4% 322,593 382,354 18.5% Market Share Car 31.5 31.0 -0.5 20.5 21.4 0.9 Light Truck 68.5 69.0 0.5 79.5 78.6 -0.9 Domestic 35.7 37.7 2.0 43.7 44.8 1.1 European 14.3 14.8 0.5 9.7 10.0 0.3 Japanese 42.1 38.1 -4.0 36.9 34.6 -2.3 Korean 8.0 9.4 1.4 9.7 10.6 0.9 Source for California new vehicle registrations: Experian Automotive. Source for U.S. sales: Automotive News. -15.5% -13.8% -21.6% -11.9% 13.6% 5.8% 4Q '21 vs. 4Q '20 1Q '22 vs. 1Q '21 2Q '22 vs. 2Q '21 3Q '22 vs. 3Q '21 4Q '22 vs. 4Q '21 1Q '23 vs. 1Q '22 % change vs. year earlier New vehicle registrations in California are predicted to approach 1.8 million units this year and increase 6.9 percent from 2022. Following three years of below average sales, pent-up demand is at elevated levels as the volume of postponed purchases continues to grow. This will be the driving force for the market for the remainder of the year. Weakening consumer affordability will hold back the release of pent-up demand, but improving vehicle inventories should be sufficient to push sales above current levels. New light vehicle registrations in California increased 5.8 percent in the First Quarter of this year versus the year earlier, slightly below the 8.4 percent improvement in National sales. After several years of steep declines, fleet purchases in the state have accelerated in 2023. Fleet registrations increased by 38.7 percent versus the slim 1 percent increase in retail registrations. New vehicle registrations in the state increased for the second consecutive quarter in 1Q ‘23. Prior to the fourth quarter of last year, the market declined by more than 10 percent for four consecutive quarters. California’s new vehicle market is predicted to increase higher than last year’s results in the remaining three quarters of this year. California New Light Vehicle Registrations and U.S. New Vehicle Sales - YTD ‘22 and YTD ‘23 thru March 32 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
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