28 California Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the California vehicle market Volume 18, Number 1 Released February 2022 Covering Fourth Quarter 2021 TM Publication Sponsored By: California New Vehicle Registrations Should Approach 2 Million Units in 2022 California New Light Vehicle Registrations and U.S. New Vehicle Sales - 2020 and 2021 TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical data source: AutoCount data from Experian. *2022 forecast by Auto Outlook. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2022 ANNUAL TRENDS New vehicle registrations in California are predicted to exceed 1.9 million units this year and increase by approximately 4 percent from 2021. Demand for new vehicles may ease in 2022 due to slower economic growth, increasing inflation, and rising interest rates, but lean inventories will continue to be the controlling factor. Softening demand might reign in some of the upward pressure on vehicle prices, but it’s not likely to have an impact on sales levels. California new light vehicle registrations improved 13.3 percent last year, higher than the 3.3 percent increase in the nation. The larger percentage increase in the state last year was primarily a result of the sharper decline that occurred in 2020. The California market was hit especially hard when the pandemic emerged two years ago. California new vehicle registrations fell by about 22 percent from 2019 to 2020 versus a 14 percent drop in the Nation. The state market experienced a steeper drop in 2020 and a stronger recovery in 2021. QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier New vehicle registrations in the state fell by more than 15 percent in the Fourth Quarter of 2021 versus year earlier. The drop followed a 7.8 percent increase in the Third Quarter, and a big jump in the Second Quarter as the market recovered from weak year earlier results. Lean inventories led to the Fourth Quarter decline. Registrations are expected to fall in the first half of this year, and increase versus year earlier levels in the second half. Data source: AutoCount data from Experian. 1.45 1.04 1.17 1.29 1.62 1.80 1.93 2.16 2.21 2.20 2.15 2.09 1.64 1.86 1.93 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. 2020 2021 Change 2020 2021 Change Registrations TOTAL 1,639,166 1,856,391 13.3% 14,575,255 15,060,287 3.3% Car 582,908 624,391 7.1% 3,463,479 3,364,513 -2.9% Light Truck 1,056,258 1,232,000 16.6% 11,111,776 11,695,774 5.3% Domestic 532,471 584,936 9.9% 6,557,138 6,164,521 -6.0% European 248,196 281,524 13.4% 1,455,832 1,611,515 10.7% Japanese 739,680 833,993 12.8% 5,337,527 5,795,133 8.6% Korean 118,819 155,938 31.2% 1,224,758 1,489,118 21.6% Market Share Car 35.6 33.6 -2.0 23.8 22.3 -1.5 Light Truck 64.4 66.4 2.0 76.2 77.7 1.5 Domestic 32.5 31.5 -1.0 45.0 40.9 -4.1 European 15.1 15.2 0.1 10.0 10.7 0.7 Japanese 45.2 44.9 -0.3 36.6 38.5 1.9 Korean 7.2 8.4 1.2 8.4 9.9 1.5 -19.6% -12.6% -2.9% 96.0% 7.8% -15.5% 3Q '20 vs. 3Q '19 4Q '20 vs. 4Q '19 1Q '21 vs. 1Q '20 2Q '21 vs. 2Q '20 3Q '21 vs. 3Q '20 4Q '21 vs. 4Q '20 % chgange vs. year earlier Source for California new vehicle registrations: AutoCount data from Experian. Source for U.S. sales: Automotive News.
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy ODQxMjUw