24 California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Volume 18, Number 3 Released August 2022 Covering Second Quarter 2022 TM Publication Sponsored By: California New Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Decline Slightly in 2022 California New Light Vehicle Registrations and U.S. New Vehicle Sales - YTD ‘21 and YTD ‘22 thru June TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical data source: AutoCount data from Experian. *2022 forecast by Auto Outlook. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2022 ANNUAL TRENDS Lean vehicle supplies continue to impact the California market. New vehicle registrations in the state are predicted to fall to 1.8 million units this year, a 3.2 percent decline from 2021. Demand for new vehicles is likely to soften in the coming months due to lower economic growth and weakening consumer affordability, but it’s not expected to lead to a sharp drop in sales. Inventory shortages have already pushed sales to low levels and accumulating pent up demand will provide a boost when supplies improve. New light vehicle registrations in California declined 17.9 percent during the first six months of this year versus year earlier, in line with the 18.3 percent drop in the Nation. Light truck registrations fell by less than the overall industry and market share increased by 2.7 share points. Domestic brand registrations (including GM, Ford, Stellantis, and Tesla) declined by just 6.3 percent. QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier As expected, Second Quarter registrations declined sharply as supply constraints continued and the market struggled to approach elevated year-earlier levels. Second Quarter registrations this year fell 21.6 percent versus 2021, the third consecutive quarterly decline that exceeded 10 percent. Data source: AutoCount data from Experian. 1.45 1.04 1.17 1.29 1.62 1.80 1.93 2.16 2.21 2.20 2.15 2.09 1.64 1.86 1.80 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. YTD '21 YTD '22 Change YTD '21 YTD '22 Change Registrations TOTAL 1,039,229 853,347 -17.9% 8,360,820 6,831,596 -18.3% Car 356,441 270,052 -24.2% 1,952,458 1,441,485 -26.2% Light Truck 682,788 583,295 -14.6% 6,408,362 5,390,111 -15.9% Domestic 323,161 302,701 -6.3% 3,411,941 3,037,177 -11.0% European 157,450 123,661 -21.5% 871,052 700,518 -19.6% Japanese 475,692 353,909 -25.6% 3,272,883 2,391,026 -26.9% Korean 82,926 73,076 -11.9% 804,944 702,875 -12.7% Market Share Car 34.3 31.6 -2.7 23.4 21.1 -2.3 Light Truck 65.7 68.4 2.7 76.6 78.9 2.3 Domestic 31.1 35.5 4.4 40.8 44.5 3.7 European 15.2 14.5 -0.7 10.4 10.3 -0.1 Japanese 45.9 41.5 -4.4 39.1 35.0 -4.1 Korean 8.0 8.6 0.6 9.6 10.3 0.7 -2.9% 96.0% 7.8% -15.5% -13.8% -21.6% 1Q '21 vs. 1Q '20 2Q '21 vs. 2Q '20 3Q '21 vs. 3Q '20 4Q '21 vs. 4Q '20 1Q '22 vs. 1Q '21 2Q '22 vs. 2Q '21 % change vs. year earlier Source for California new vehicle registrations: AutoCount data from Experian. Source for U.S. sales: Automotive News.
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