California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Volume 19, Number 3 Released July 2023 Covering Second Quarter 2023 TM Publication Sponsored By: Recovery Gains Momentum; 2Q ‘23 Registrations Up 16.8% vs. 2Q ‘22 TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical Data sourced from Experian Automotive. *2023 forecast by Auto Outlook. Historical figures have been updated since the previous release. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2023 ANNUAL TRENDS QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 1.33 0.96 1.08 1.19 1.49 1.66 1.78 1.99 2.03 2.03 1.99 1.89 1.60 1.77 1.59 1.80 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. YTD '22 YTD '23 Change YTD '22 YTD '23 Change Registrations TOTAL 811,318 905,752 11.6% 6,698,490 7,436,260 11.0% Car 258,069 279,589 8.3% 1,395,833 1,542,396 10.5% Light Truck 553,249 626,163 13.2% 5,302,657 5,893,864 11.1% Domestic 283,227 340,180 20.1% 2,916,131 3,277,404 12.4% European 121,326 135,719 11.9% 681,849 740,739 8.6% Japanese 335,597 344,455 2.6% 2,433,536 2,617,976 7.6% Korean 71,168 85,398 20.0% 666,974 800,141 20.0% Market Share Car 31.8 30.9 -0.9 20.8 20.7 -0.1 Light Truck 68.2 69.1 0.9 79.2 79.3 0.1 Domestic 34.9 37.6 2.7 43.5 44.1 0.6 European 15.0 15.0 0.0 10.2 10.0 -0.2 Japanese 41.5 38.0 -3.5 36.3 35.2 -1.1 Korean 8.8 9.4 0.6 10.0 10.8 0.8 Data sourced from Experian Automotive. -1.8% -27.7% -14.1% 11.6% 6.5% 16.8% 1Q '22 vs. 1Q '21 2Q '22 vs. 2Q '21 3Q '22 vs. 3Q '21 4Q '22 vs. 4Q '21 1Q '23 vs. 1Q '22 2Q '23 vs. 2Q '22 % change vs. year earlier New vehicle registrations in California are predicted to approach 1.8 million units this year and increase 13.4 percent from 2022. A significant number of new vehicle purchases have been postponed since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Estimated pent-up demand in the state has reached 700,000 units, approximately 40% of average annual registrations. This “stored potential” should more than offset the drag on sales resulting from softening vehicle affordability. The market has enough gas in the tank to move higher this year, with recovery almost certainly lasting into 2024. New light vehicle registrations in California increased 11.6 percent during the first six months of this year versus the year earlier, higher than the 11.0 percent improvement in the Nation. Light truck market share in the state reached 69.1 percent. However, the surge in light truck market share during the past several years can send a misleading signal regarding the apparent shift to bigger vehicles. The proliferation of small crossover SUVs, which are typically classified as light trucks, are in many ways more similar to traditional passenger cars (see page 7). New vehicle registrations in the state increased for the third consecutive quarter in 2Q ‘23. The total exceeded 475,000 units, the highest total since 2Q ‘21. The pace of improvement should continue in the second half of the year versus weak results in the second half of 2022 when supply chain interruptions significantly impacted sales. California and U.S New Light Vehicle Registrations YTD ‘22 and YTD ‘23 thru June 28 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
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