California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Volume 20, Number 1 Released January 2024 Covering Fourth Quarter 2023 TM Publication Sponsored By: New Vehicle Market Predicted to Increase in 2024 TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical Data sourced from Experian Automotive. *2024 forecast by Auto Outlook. Historical figures have been updated since the previous release. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2009 thru 2024 ANNUAL TRENDS QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 0.96 1.08 1.19 1.49 1.66 1.78 1.99 2.03 2.03 1.99 1.89 1.60 1.77 1.59 1.78 1.83 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. 2022 2023 Change 2022 2023 Change Registrations TOTAL 1,586,413 1,775,915 11.9% 13,366,498 15,049,478 12.6% Car 503,542 542,471 7.7% 2,793,044 3,079,645 10.3% Light Truck 1,082,871 1,233,444 13.9% 10,573,454 11,969,833 13.2% Domestic 568,568 644,197 13.3% 5,846,843 6,500,785 11.2% European 239,912 263,545 9.9% 1,405,995 1,528,457 8.7% Japanese 628,976 701,395 11.5% 4,698,986 5,404,804 15.0% Korean 148,957 166,778 12.0% 1,414,674 1,615,432 14.2% Market Share Car 31.7 30.5 -1.2 20.9 20.5 -0.4 Light Truck 68.3 69.5 1.2 79.1 79.5 0.4 Domestic 35.8 36.3 0.5 43.7 43.2 -0.5 European 15.1 14.8 -0.3 10.5 10.2 -0.3 Japanese 39.7 39.5 -0.2 35.2 35.9 0.7 Korean 9.4 9.4 0.0 10.6 10.7 0.1 Data sourced from Experian Automotive. -14.1% 11.4% 6.1% 16.0% 20.3% 6.0% 3Q '22 vs. 3Q '21 4Q '22 vs. 4Q '21 1Q '23 vs. 1Q '22 2Q '23 vs. 2Q '22 3Q '23 vs. 3Q '22 4Q '23 vs. 4Q '22 % change vs. year earlier California and U.S New Light Vehicle Registrations 2022 and 2023 New vehicle registrations in California are predicted to approach 1.83 million units this year and increase 3.2 percent from 2023. Pent-up demand is still significant, California labor market is strong, and consensus is for economic growth to remain positive. Vehicle affordability is still an issue, but should improve as the year progresses. As always there are some risks (geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding the presidential election, for example), but if interest rates ease, the market could post a larger increase than expected this year. New light vehicle registrations in California increased 11.9 percent from 2022 to 2023, just below the 12.6 percent improvement in the Nation. Light truck market share in the state reached 69.5 percent. However, the surge in light truck market share during the past several years can send a misleading signal regarding the apparent shift to bigger vehicles. The proliferation of small crossover SUVs, which are typically classified as light trucks, are in many ways more similar to traditional passenger cars (see page 7). New vehicle registrations in the state increased for the fifth consecutive quarter in 4Q ‘23. The total exceeded 426,000 units, 24,000 units higher than in 4Q ‘22. The pace of improvement is expected to ease in 2024, with percentage increases expected to remain in the single digits. 30 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
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