California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Volume 20, Number 3 Released July 2024 Covering Second Quarter 2024 TM Publication Sponsored By: California New Light Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Increase Slightly in 2024 TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical Data sourced from Experian Automotive. *2024 forecast by Auto Outlook. Historical figures have been updated since the previous release. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2009 thru 2024 ANNUAL TRENDS QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 0.96 1.08 1.19 1.49 1.66 1.78 1.99 2.03 2.03 1.99 1.89 1.60 1.77 1.58 1.77 1.80 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. YTD '23 YTD '24 Change YTD '23 YTD '24 Change Registrations TOTAL 898,340 892,363 -0.7% 7,401,375 7,758,241 4.8% Car 277,747 246,660 -11.2% 1,537,182 1,479,619 -3.7% Light Truck 620,593 645,703 4.0% 5,864,193 6,278,622 7.1% Domestic 337,058 297,387 -11.8% 3,257,040 3,244,536 -0.4% European 134,596 132,631 -1.5% 736,292 790,484 7.4% Japanese 341,918 376,911 10.2% 2,609,469 2,925,503 12.1% Korean 84,768 85,434 0.8% 798,574 797,718 -0.1% Market Share Car 30.9 27.6 -3.3 20.8 19.1 -1.7 Light Truck 69.1 72.4 3.3 79.2 80.9 1.7 Domestic 37.5 33.3 -4.2 44.0 41.8 -2.2 European 15.0 14.9 -0.1 9.9 10.2 0.3 Japanese 38.2 42.2 4.0 35.3 37.7 2.4 Korean 9.4 9.6 0.2 10.8 10.3 -0.5 Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 6.1% 15.9% 19.9% 5.3% 0.4% -1.7% 1Q '23 vs. 1Q '22 2Q '23 vs. 2Q '22 3Q '23 vs. 3Q '22 4Q '23 vs. 4Q '22 1Q '24 vs. 1Q '23 2Q '24 vs. 2Q '23 % change vs. year earlier California and U.S New Light Vehicle Registrations YTD ‘23 and YTD ‘24 thru June Key factor boosting state new vehicle market: existing vehicle fleet is old. National average age of vehicles in operation has reached an all-time high. No question, modern vehicles are built better and last longer, but today’s models offer many upgraded features. Passive and active safety technology, advanced infotainment options, and alternative powertrains are just a few examples. Many vehicle owners have a strong incentive to upgrade. Key factor holding back state new vehicle market: monthly finance and lease costs remain elevated due to higher interest rates. Vehicle transaction prices have fallen and household incomes are increasing, but inflation has eroded purchasing power. Monthly new vehicle payments as a percent of consumer income will likely move lower in the coming months, but are high right now and it’s holding back sales. Forecast summary: replacement demand and falling transaction prices will provide some momentum for the new vehicle market for the rest of ‘24, while the negative factors will limit growth. Heightened anxiety surrounding the upcoming presidential election is also having an impact on consumer confidence, which could keep some shoppers on the sidelines. State new retail light vehicle registrations are predicted to reach 1.8 million units for all of this year and increase 1.9 percent from 2023. First half recap: new light vehicle registrations in California declined 0.7 percent during the first six months of this year versus the year earlier. National market improved 4.8 percent. KEY TRENDS IN NEW VEHICLE MARKET 32 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTg3NDExNQ==