Pub. 2 2020-2021 Issue 4

30 California Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the California vehicle market Volume 16, Number 4 Released November 2020 Covering Third Quarter 2020 TM Publication Sponsored By: California Total New Light Vehicle Registrations and U.S. New Vehicle Sales - YTD 2019 & 2020, thru September TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Source for California new vehicle registrations: AutoCount data from Experian. Source for U.S. sales: Automotive News. State Market Shows Signs of Recovery; 12 Percent Increase Predicted for 2021 Historical data source: AutoCount data from Experian. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2021 ANNUAL TRENDS New vehicle registrations in Cal- ifornia are expected to decline to 1.67 million units in 2020, down 20 percent from last year. Latest projections are for the market to approach 1.9 million units in 2021, an increase of 12% percent from this year. Accumulating pent up demand and low interest rates will support the market next year, while expected slow improvement in employment should prevent a sharp rebound. *‘20 and ‘21 forecasts by Auto Outlook. 1.45 1.04 1.17 1.29 1.62 1.80 1.93 2.16 2.21 2.20 2.15 2.09 1.67 1.87 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20* '21* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. YTD '19 YTD '20 Change YTD '19 YTD '20 Change Registrations TOTAL 1,589,843 1,199,446 -24.6% 12,809,063 10,452,763 -18.4% Car 671,207 440,054 -34.4% 3,693,050 2,564,966 -30.5% Light Truck 918,636 759,392 -17.3% 9,116,013 7,887,797 -13.5% Domestic 507,682 390,159 -23.1% 5,760,331 4,773,224 -17.1% European 239,249 178,736 -25.3% 1,204,898 994,992 -17.4% Japanese 731,705 543,445 -25.7% 4,858,971 3,801,487 -21.8% Korean 111,207 87,106 -21.7% 984,863 883,060 -10.3% Market Share Car 42.2 36.7 -5.5 28.8 24.5 -4.3 Light Truck 57.8 63.3 5.5 71.2 75.5 4.3 Domestic 31.9 32.5 0.6 45.0 45.7 0.7 European 15.0 14.9 -0.1 9.4 9.5 0.1 Japanese 46.1 45.3 -0.8 37.9 36.4 -1.5 Korean 7.0 7.3 0.3 7.7 8.4 0.7 California new light vehicle mar- ket declined 24.6 percent during the first nine months of this year versus a year earlier.The U.S. market fell 18.4 percent. Retail vehicle sales in the state have held up better in 2020. New retail registrations fell 19.5 so far this year. Light truck registrations in the state declined 17.3 percent versus the 34.4 percent drop for passenger cars. QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier The rate of decline in the state market eased in the Third Quarter of this year. 3Q ‘20 registrations fell by 19.6 percent versus a year earlier, an improve- ment from the 48.9 percent drop in the Second Quarter. Wildfires and a slowly recovering labor market contributed to the nearly 20 percent decline in the Third Quarter.The market could post a small increase in the Fourth Quarter. Data source: AutoCount data from Experian. -3.7% -3.8% -0.3% -4.3% -48.9% -19.6% -100.0% -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 2Q '19 vs. 2Q '18 3Q '19 vs. 3Q '18 4Q '19 vs. 4Q '18 1Q '20 vs. 1Q '19 2Q '20 vs. 2Q '19 3Q '20 vs. 3Q '19 % chgange vs. year earlier