How To Benefit From a Lull in the Economy BY JIM REBER, PRESIDENT AND CEO, ICBA SECURITIES Tell me if you’ve heard this: An inverted yield curve is highly correlated with a subsequent recession. And might I point out that the U.S. treasury curve has been upside down for pushing two years now? Since we’re playing master of the obvious, let’s mention that the Fed — while not quite ready to start cutting rates — seems satisfied it’s laid the groundwork for inflation to get back in the 2% box that has proven elusive for several years. The press release following the Jan. 31, 2024, FOMC meeting stated, “The risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance.” To be sure, the economy still seems to be chugging along quite nicely, thank you. As of this writing, there are “three” handles on several of the more critical economic barometers, which is a pretty good trick to pull off for an economy supposedly being dragged down by a restrictive monetary policy. Fourth quarter gross domestic product has run around 3.2%, the aforementioned inflation (the Fed’s preferred index is “Core PCE”) is sticky at 3.9% and unemployment boasts an impressively low 3.7%. This is not the stuff of an economy that’s about to run off a cliff (probably). ON THE OTHER HAND Of course, we’ve been getting a steady diet of not-so-positive news, too. The U.S. went blowing through the $1 trillion level in credit card debt in December 2023 and continues to pile onto that record. Delinquencies on consumer borrowings, particularly with the younger-aged cohorts, have been running hot as rates are at a generational high. And the mortgage finance industry is a story unto itself. We must go back to the start of the 21st century to see refinance activity this low, and even further to 1995 to see fewer purchase applications. That’s what 7% market rates will do to a borrower base whose average current mortgage is still well below 4%. That differential is the highest in history. Where this leaves us: If community bankers were so inclined, they could find options for their bond portfolios that would look pretty good if rates were to begin trending down. The good folks at Stifel have pointed out that there can be a number of months and even quarters after the final rate hike before the first cut occurs. “Higher for longer” may be in play for 2024, and we’ve seen this movie before. Remember, the last hike was last July. PLENTY TO CHOOSE FROM Buyers can pick just how much recession-proofing they want to build into their balance sheets. Thanks to the inverted curve, something with a four- to five-year average life will look attractive compared to longer options. And since community banks’ interest rate risk positions have returned to near‑balanced postures, most depositories can buy some fixed-rate items without aggravating their asset/ liability exposures. Recession Proofing 22 | CURRENCY
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