93,103 100,155 108,637 107,100 2022 Actual 2023 Actual 2024 Actual 2025 Baseline Forecast First Quarter 2025 Released April 2025 Market Summary Forecast for State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations DOWN 20.0% vs. ‘21 UP 7.6% vs. ‘22 UP 8.5% vs. ‘23 DOWN 1.4% vs. ‘24 Arkansas Auto Outlook Coverage of the Arkansas new vehicle market TM YTD '24 YTD '25 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Mar. thru Mar. '24 to '25 YTD '25 TOTAL 24,934 29,144 16.9% Car 3,494 3,517 0.7% 12.1% Light Truck 21,440 25,627 19.5% 87.9% Domestic 12,152 15,263 25.6% 52.3% European 1,342 1,591 18.6% 5.5% Japanese 8,632 8,537 -1.1% 29.3% Other Asian 2,808 3,753 33.7% 12.9% The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2022 through 2024, and Auto Outlook’s baseline projection for 2025. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Other Asian includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. FORECAST Outlook for 2025 is Clouded Due to Tariffs Outlook for Arkansas New Vehicle Market Baseline Forecast Key assumptions: tariffs are scaled back somewhat from current rates but remain above prior levels; vehicle prices increase by no more than 5%; minimal interest rate cuts by the Fed; inflation drifts higher; and economic growth slows. Forecast: 107,100 units, down 1.4% vs. ‘24 Alternative Upside Forecast Key assumptions: tariffs are largely removed and revert to prior levels; vehicle prices remain stable; several interest rate reductions by the Fed; inflation eases; and economic growth improves as the year progresses. This is similar to the forecast projection in January of this year. Forecast: 112,400 units, up 3.5% vs. ‘24 Alternative Downside Forecast Key assumptions: tensions escalate and tariffs are increased; vehicle prices surge by roughly 10%; no interest rate cuts; inflation accelerates; and the economy enters recession. Forecast: 99,800 units, down 8.1% vs. ‘24 There is heightened uncertainty for the new vehicle sales outlook in 2025. Some tariffs were dialed back in early April, but automotive and raw material tariffs are still in place, and the trade scenario is far from settled. Below are three scenarios for the forecast incorporating varying assumptions for tariffs and economic outcomes. Below is a review of key trends in the state new vehicle market. Market got off to a strong start in First Quarter of this year State New retail light vehicle registrations increased 16.9% in the First Quarter of 2025 versus a year earlier, well above the 4.2% improvement in the U.S. As shown on page 2, U.S. equivalent SAAR levels in the state were 17 million units in 1Q ‘25. Outlook for rest of year is clouded Pent-up-demand, combined with improvements in affordability were expected to propel the market in 2025. However, the potential overhaul of U.S. trade policy has added significant unknowns into the new vehicle sales outlook. The sidebar on the right presents three forecast scenarios for state new vehicle registrations this year, incorporating varying assumptions for tariff policies and economic outcomes. After the events of the past few weeks, it’s safe to say that things are likely to change, so stay tuned. Battery electric vehicle share remains low BEV market share in Arkansas was just 2.2% in the First Quarter of this year, up from 1.7% a year earlier, but down slightly from the Fourth Quarter of last year. Nationwide, battery electric vehicles accounted for 9.6% of industry registrations Buick is strong performer in state Small SUV segment; Cadillac stands out among Mid and Full Size Luxury SUVs As show on page 4, Buick accounted for 7.1% of the state Small SUV segment, well above its 2.6% share in the Nation. Cadillac was a relatively strong performer in the Mid and Full Size Luxury SUV segment. 22 Arkansas Auto Dealer
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