93,104 100,152 108,621 111,800 2022 Actual 2023 Actual 2024 Actual 2025 Forecast Second Quarter 2025 Released July 2025 Market Summary Forecast for State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations DOWN 20.0% vs. ‘21 UP 7.6% vs. ‘22 UP 8.5% vs. ‘23 UP 2.9% vs. ‘24 Arkansas Auto Outlook Coverage of the Arkansas new vehicle market TM YTD '24 YTD '25 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru June thru June '24 to '25 YTD '25 TOTAL 49,527 58,952 19.0% Car 7,177 7,035 -2.0% 11.9% Light Truck 42,350 51,917 22.6% 88.1% Domestic 23,880 30,604 28.2% 51.9% European 2,626 2,912 10.9% 4.9% Japanese 17,114 17,723 3.6% 30.1% Other Asian 5,907 7,713 30.6% 13.1% Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Other Asian includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2022 through 2024, and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2025. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. FORECAST New Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Decline in 2nd Half of ‘25 Below is a list of five key trends and developments in the Arkansas new vehicle market: 1. The state market got off to a very good start in the first half of this year. New retail light vehicle registrations increased 19% during the first six months of 2025 versus a year earlier, well above the 6.4% improvement in the U.S. Some sales were undoubtedly pulled ahead as shoppers entered the market in advance of anticipated price increases due to tariffs. 2. As discussed in the sidebar on the right, there is heightened uncertainty for the new vehicle sales outlook. At this point, it looks like the market will move lower for the rest of this year. Second half registrations are predicted to decline 10% compared to the same period in 2024. The market is expected to increase 2.9% for all of this year (see graph below). 3. Hybrid vehicle sales continue to move higher. Hybrid registrations increased 59% in the first half of this year, easily outpacing the overall market. Market share reached 9.7%. BEV market share was just 2.1% so far this year, up from 1.7% in the first half of 2024. 4. Hybrids accounted for 46% of Toyota registrations during the first six months of 2025. ICE powertrain share was 90% or higher for 19 of the top 30 selling brands (see page 7). 5. First half registrations increased by more than 30% for eight of the top 30 selling brands in the state: Lincoln, Buick, Cadillac, Tesla, Ford, GMC, Hyundai, and Kia. Primary Factors Driving the Arkansas New Vehicle Market As 2025 approached, the outlook for new vehicle sales was positive. Affordability was likely to improve due to lower interest rates and declining transaction prices. The economy was also in relatively good shape: GDP growth was solid, unemployment remained low, incomes were on the rise, and inflation was cooling. Add in pent-up demand resulting from deferred purchases during the pandemic and ensuing supply chain disruptions, and the stage was set for improving sales. But that clear road quickly turned bumpy. U.S. trade policy was abruptly and dramatically altered, throwing a wrench into a relatively stable economic environment. The global economy is intricately interconnected, and the introduction of this level of policy uncertainty has left both businesses and consumers partially paralyzed. This level of disruption is substantial and without historical precedence, which makes isolating the impact on new vehicle sales very difficult. Bottom line: Higher tariffs will likely lead to rising vehicle prices and in the short run, increasing inflation, lower economic growth, and stagnant household disposable income, all negatives for new vehicle sales. In addition, sales were pulled ahead this year as shoppers advanced purchases due to the anticipation of higher vehicle prices resulting from tariffs. New vehicle registrations in the second half of the year are projected to decline from the year earlier, but the situation is highly dynamic and subject to change, so stay tuned. t Released July 2025 Market Summary ns ansas Auto Outlook Coverage of the Arkansas new vehicle market TM YTD '24 YTD '25 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru June thru June '24 to '25 YTD '25 TOTAL 49,527 58,952 19.0% Car 7,177 7,035 -2.0% 11.9% Light Truck 42,350 51,917 22.6% 88.1% Domestic 23,880 30,604 28.2% 51.9% European 2,626 2,912 10.9% 4.9% Japanese 17,114 17,723 3.6% 30.1% Other Asian 5,907 7,713 30.6% 13.1% Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Other Asian includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. from cted to Decline in 2nd Half of ‘25 the f of 9% well ere t in ned t, it ear. omd to traoutBEV % in the or t of ac, Primary Factors Driving the Arkansas New Vehicle Market As 2025 approached, the outlook for new vehicle sales was positive. Affordability was likely to improve due to lower interest rates and declining transaction prices. The economy was also in relatively good shape: GDP growth was solid, unemployment remained low, incomes were on the rise, and inflation was cooling. Add in pent-up demand resulting from deferred purchases during the pandemic and ensuing supply chain disruptions, and the stage was set for improving sales. But that clear road quickly turned bumpy. U.S. trade policy was abruptly and dramatically altered, throwing a wrench into a relatively stable economic environment. The global economy is intricately interconnected, and the introduction of this level of policy uncertainty has left both businesses and consumers partially paralyzed. This level of disruption is substantial and without historical precedence, which makes isolating the impact on new vehicle sales very difficult. Bottom line: Higher tariffs will likely lead to rising vehicle prices and in the short run, increasing inflation, lower economic growth, and stagnant household disposable income, all negatives for new vehicle sales. In addition, sales were pulled ahead this year as shoppers advanced purchases due to the anticipation of higher vehicle prices resulting from tariffs. New vehicle registrations in the second half of the year are projected to decline from the year earlier, but the situation is highly dynamic and subject to change, so stay tuned. SCAN THE QR CODE TO GET THE FULL REPORT. https://arkansas-auto-dealer.thenewslinkgroup.org/ arkansas-auto-outlook-2025-issue-2/
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