100,092 108,522 117,421 115,200 2023 Actual 2024 Actual 2025 Actual 2026 Forecast Second Quarter 2026 Released July 2026 Market Summary Forecast for State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations UP 7.6% vs. ‘22 UP 8.4% vs. ‘23 UP 8.2% vs. ‘24 DOWN 1.9% vs. ‘25 Arkansas Auto Outlook Coverage of the Arkansas new vehicle market TM YTD '25 YTD '26 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru June thru June '25 to '26 YTD '26 TOTAL 58,659 56,869 -3.1% Car 6,983 6,847 -1.9% 12.0% Light Truck 51,676 50,022 -3.2% 88.0% Domestic 30,447 28,760 -5.5% 50.6% European 2,895 2,496 -13.8% 4.4% Japanese 17,655 18,031 2.1% 31.7% Other Asian 7,662 7,582 -1.0% 13.3% Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Other Asian includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2023 to 2025, and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2026. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. FORECAST State New Vehicle Market Predicted to Hold Steady in 2nd Half of Year Year-to-date results in state market Arkansas new retail light vehicle registrations declined 3.1% during the first six months of this year versus a year earlier, better than the 6% drop in the nation. Second quarter registrations this year were off 3.9% compared to 2Q ‘25. Factors steering the new vehicle market It might sound like a broken record because we have been emphasizing it for a long time, but pent-up demand resulting from delayed purchases during the pandemic will continue to support the market for the foreseeable future. The vehicle fleet continues to age, and as a result, replacement demand will place a floor on how low sales can go - which is a good thing because other key determinants are pointing to a softening market. Affordability issues continue to keep many prospective purchasers on the sidelines. Relatively high interest rates, elevated vehicle transaction prices, and stagnant real personal incomes have made a new vehicle purchase a stretch for many consumers. Increasing costs and inflationary pressures resulting from tariffs, higher gas prices, and an uncertain economy are other headwinds. It’s a complicated forecast scenario, and there is heightened uncertainty due to changing federal government policies and geopolitical events, but it seems likely that the new vehicle market will drift lower this year, while avoiding a significant decline. Forecast for rest of this year New retail light vehicle registrations in the second half of this year have a chance to increase versus year earlier. Third quarter results should be weaker compared to 3Q ‘25, while an increase is possible in the fourth quarter. Annual registrations this year are predicted to exceed 115,000 units and decline 1.9% from 2025. Tracking alternative powertrain sales Battery electric vehicle registrations declined 7.1% during the first half of this year versus year earlier. BEV share in the state was just 2.0%, well below the U.S. share of 6.9%. Hybrid vehicles continued to post gains, with registrations improving 8.7% in the first half of this year and market share reaching 10.9%. Monitoring brand sales performance State new vehicle registrations for Nissan, Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, Jeep, Lexus, and Ram increased by more than 5% so far this year versus year earlier. Ford, Chevrolet, Toyota, GMC, and Nissan were top selling brands (see page 4). Based on a comparison to U.S. market share, GMC, Ford, Nissan, Chevrolet, and Ram are strong performing brands in the Arkansas market (see page 5). 17 Arkansas Auto Dealer
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