California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Volume 20, Number 4 Released October 2024 Covering Third Quarter 2024 TM Publication Sponsored By: California New Light Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Increase Slightly in 2025 TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical Data sourced from Experian Automotive. *2024 and 2025 forecasts by Auto Outlook. Historical figures have been updated since the previous release. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2010 thru 2025 ANNUAL TRENDS QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 1.08 1.19 1.49 1.66 1.78 1.99 2.03 2.03 1.99 1.89 1.60 1.77 1.58 1.77 1.75 1.79 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24* '25* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. YTD '23 YTD '24 Change YTD '23 YTD '24 Change Registrations TOTAL 1,344,017 1,320,708 -1.7% 11,287,118 11,587,811 2.7% Car 417,608 362,881 -13.1% 2,340,062 2,194,467 -6.2% Light Truck 926,409 957,827 3.4% 8,947,056 9,393,344 5.0% Domestic 497,350 447,301 -10.1% 4,951,135 4,855,618 -1.9% European 198,243 194,188 -2.0% 1,123,104 1,171,576 4.3% Japanese 520,117 550,395 5.8% 3,992,356 4,345,905 8.9% Korean 128,307 128,824 0.4% 1,220,523 1,214,712 -0.5% Market Share Car 31.1 27.5 -3.6 20.7 18.9 -1.8 Light Truck 68.9 72.5 3.6 79.3 81.1 1.8 Domestic 37.0 33.9 -3.1 43.9 41.9 -2.0 European 14.8 14.7 -0.1 10.0 10.1 0.1 Japanese 38.8 41.7 2.9 35.4 37.5 2.1 Korean 9.5 9.8 0.3 10.8 10.5 -0.3 Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 15.9% 19.8% 5.1% 0.2% -2.0% -3.3% 2Q '23 vs. 2Q '22 3Q '23 vs. 3Q '22 4Q '23 vs. 4Q '22 1Q '24 vs. 1Q '23 2Q '24 vs. 2Q '23 3Q '24 vs. 3Q '23 % change vs. year earlier California and U.S New Light Vehicle Registrations YTD ‘23 and YTD ‘24 thru September The California new vehicle market is predicted to remain in a narrow range between 2023 and 2025. 1.77 million new vehicles were registered in the state in 2023. The total for all of this year is expected to decline slightly to 1.75 million, with next year’s total projected to increase by roughly two percent and reach 1.79 million. Affordability is the key issue holding back sales, but lower interest rates, falling inflation, increasing employment, and rising incentives are helping. In addition, pent up demand from five years of below average sales is significant. The sales recovery will likely be gradual, however. New light vehicle registrations in California declined 1.7 percent during the first nine months of this year versus year earlier. The U.S. market improved by less than 3 percent over the same period. Light truck registrations in the state increased 3.4 percent and market share reached 72.5 percent. Light truck share in the Nation exceeded 80 percent. Largely due to big declines for Tesla, domestic brand market share in California fell by 3.1 points during the first nine months of this year. New vehicle registrations in the state fell 3.3 percent in the third quarter of this year versus year earlier, the second consecutive decline. The market should be flat in the fourth quarter of this year, with a small increase possible. 36 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
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