California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Volume 21, Number 1 Released January, 2025 Covering Fourth Quarter 2024 TM Publication Sponsored By: California New Light Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Increase Slightly in 2025 TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical Data sourced from Experian Automotive. *2025 forecast by Auto Outlook. Historical figures have been updated since the previous release. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2010 thru 2025 ANNUAL TRENDS QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 1HZ YHKLFOH UHJV PLOOLRQV <HDUV &DOLIRUQLD 8 6 &KDQJH &KDQJH 5HJLVWUDWLRQV TOTAL 1,764,767 1,759,141 -0.3% 14,981,634 15,497,633 3.4% Car 539,900 480,892 -10.9% 3,067,527 2,918,221 -4.9% Light Truck 1,224,867 1,278,249 4.4% 11,914,107 12,579,412 5.6% Domestic 639,434 588,110 -8.0% 6,465,537 6,476,432 0.2% European 261,882 261,353 -0.2% 1,520,750 1,591,127 4.6% Japanese 698,196 734,804 5.2% 5,385,197 5,771,132 7.2% Korean 165,255 174,874 5.8% 1,610,150 1,658,942 3.0% 0DUNHW 6KDUH Car 30.6 27.3 -3.3 20.5 18.8 -1.7 Light Truck 69.4 72.7 3.3 79.5 81.2 1.7 Domestic 36.2 33.4 -2.8 43.2 41.8 -1.4 European 14.8 14.9 0.1 10.2 10.3 0.1 Japanese 39.7 41.8 2.1 35.9 37.2 1.3 Korean 9.4 9.9 0.5 10.7 10.7 0.0 Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 4 YV 4 4 YV 4 4 YV 4 4 YV 4 4 YV 4 4 YV 4 FKDQJH YV \HDU HDUOLHU California and U.S New Light Vehicle Registrations 2023 and 2024 State new light vehicle registrations are predicted to reach 1.8 million units in 2025, an increase of 2.3 percent from 2024. Potential changes in policies during 2025 (i.e, tax cuts, increase in tariffs, and reductions in labor force due to deportations) introduce elevated uncertainty to the outlook for new vehicle sales. Collectively, these policy initiatives could add to inflation, reversing recent improvements in affordability. Despite these potential negatives, a strong labor market and pent-up demand accumulated during five years of below average sales should lead to improving sales in 2025. New light vehicle registrations in California declined a slim 0.3 percent from 2023 to 2024. The U.S. market improved by 3.4 percent last year. All of the decrease in the state market last year was attributable to Tesla, which had an 11.6 percent decline. Registrations for all other brands increased 1.4 percent. Light trucks gained market share in both the state and U.S. markets. New vehicle registrations in California increased 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 versus year earlier. The market declined in the second and third quarters of last year. The market should be flat in the first quarter of this year, with a small increase possible. 30 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
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