California Auto Outlook 20.7% 22.0% 22.7% 21.3% 21.0% 22.0% 23.7% 21.3% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 1Q '23 2Q '23 3Q '23 4Q '23 1Q '24 2Q '24 3Q '24 4Q '24 Vehicle Powertrain Dashboard Make and Model Registrations for ZEVs and PHEVs in California ZEVs are full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell vehicles. PHEVs are plug in hybrids. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. Top 25 Selling BEV and PHEV Models - 2024 ZEV Registrations as a % of Total Registrations in California ❏ The graph on the left shows new ZEV registrations in California as a percent of industry along with CARB ACC2 mandates for 2026, 2027, and 2028 model year vehicles. ❏ ZEVs accounted for 21.3 percent of industry registrations in the fourth quarter of 2024, significantly below the upcoming CARB ACC2 mandated level of 35 percent for 2026 model year vehicles. ❏ 4Q ‘24 BEV market share would need to increase by 13.7 share points to meet the CARB mandated level of 35 percent for 2026 model year vehicles, representing a 64 percent increase in BEV registrations. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. California New Zero Emission Vehicle Registrations by Make 2023 and 2024 Annual Totals Registrations Market Share (%) 2023 2024 % Change 2023 2024 Change TOTAL 382,670 387,368 1.2 Acura 0 1,118 0.0 0.3 0.3 Audi 8,250 10,161 23.2 2.2 2.6 0.4 BMW 14,465 18,664 29.0 3.8 4.8 1.0 Cadillac 1,319 5,235 296.9 0.3 1.4 1.1 Chevrolet 19,145 14,553 -24.0 5.0 3.8 -1.2 Ford 16,070 17,317 7.8 4.2 4.5 0.3 Genesis 1,534 1,759 14.7 0.4 0.5 0.1 GMC 228 2,725 1095.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 Honda 0 7,006 0.0 1.8 1.8 Hyundai 16,956 22,718 34.0 4.4 5.9 1.5 Jaguar 174 2,843 1533.9 0.0 0.7 0.7 Kia 8,008 13,943 74.1 2.1 3.6 1.5 Lexus 1,842 4,088 121.9 0.5 1.1 0.6 Mazda 87 8 -90.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mercedes 15,724 17,369 10.5 4.1 4.5 0.4 MINI 864 871 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 Nissan 4,627 5,865 26.8 1.2 1.5 0.3 Other 3,624 6,627 82.9 0.9 1.7 0.8 Polestar 3,122 1,957 -37.3 0.8 0.5 -0.3 Porsche 2,358 2,254 -4.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 Ram 0 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rivian 10,277 12,020 17.0 2.7 3.1 0.4 Subaru 2,009 2,632 31.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 Tesla 230,010 203,221 -11.6 60.1 52.5 -7.6 Toyota 6,720 5,953 -11.4 1.8 1.5 -0.3 Volkswagen 12,259 5,440 -55.6 3.2 1.4 -1.8 Volvo 2,998 1,017 -66.1 0.8 0.3 -0.5 CARB ACC2 mandate for 2026 model year vehicles: 35% Rank Model Type Regs. 1 Tesla Model Y BEV 128,923 2 Tesla Model 3 BEV 53,056 3 Hyundai Ioniq 5 BEV 16,879 4 Ford Mustang Mach-E BEV 10,874 5 Toyota RAV4 PHEV 9,474 6 Tesla Cybertruck BEV 9,019 7 Rivian R1S BEV 8,721 8 Tesla Model X BEV 8,585 9 BMW i4 BEV 8,396 10 Jeep Wrangler PHEV 7,978 11 Honda Prologue BEV 6,955 12 BMW iX BEV 6,027 13 Ford F-Series Lightning BEV 5,590 14 Kia EV6 BEV 5,564 15 Toyota bZ4X BEV 5,495 16 Volkswagen ID.4 BEV 5,396 17 Cadillac Lyriq BEV 5,235 18 Mercedes EQE SUV BEV 5,167 19 Kia EV9 BEV 4,924 20 Mercedes EQB BEV 4,841 21 Nissan Ariya BEV 4,638 22 Chevrolet Equinox BEV 4,448 23 Hyundai Ioniq 6 BEV 4,272 24 Lexus RZ BEV 4,088 25 Chevrolet Bolt BEV 4,032 CARB ACC2 mandate for 2027 model year vehicles: 43% CARB ACC2 mandate for 2028 model year vehicles: 51% The California Air Resources Board’s 2035 ZEV rule (also known as Advanced Clean Cars II) starts with the 2026 model year. The rule’s ZEV stringency requirement starts at 35% and increases steadily each year, culminating with 100% in 2035 32 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
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