California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Volume 21, Number 1 Released April, 2025 Covering First Quarter 2025 TM Publication Sponsored By: Outlook for State New Vehicle Market is Clouded Due to Tariffs TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical Data sourced from Experian Automotive. *2025 forecast by Auto Outlook. Projections do not reflect potential sales reductions due to non-economic regulatory impacts. Historical figures have been updated since the previous release. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2010 thru 2025 ANNUAL TRENDS QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 1.08 1.19 1.49 1.66 1.78 1.99 2.03 2.03 1.99 1.89 1.60 1.77 1.58 1.76 1.75 1.71 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. YTD '24 YTD '25 Change YTD '24 YTD '25 Change Registrations TOTAL 427,636 463,114 8.3% 3,734,611 3,907,894 4.6% Car 118,856 120,268 1.2% 707,649 696,586 -1.6% Light Truck 308,780 342,846 11.0% 3,026,962 3,211,308 6.1% Domestic 145,590 147,898 1.6% 1,565,341 1,618,207 3.4% European 66,443 70,311 5.8% 387,577 408,502 5.4% Japanese 178,140 197,126 10.7% 1,410,503 1,463,122 3.7% Other Asian 37,463 47,779 27.5% 371,190 418,063 12.6% Market Share Car 27.8 26.0 -1.8 18.9 17.8 -1.1 Light Truck 72.2 74.0 1.8 81.1 82.2 1.1 Domestic 34.0 31.9 -2.1 41.9 41.4 -0.5 European 15.5 15.2 -0.3 10.4 10.5 0.1 Japanese 41.8 42.6 0.8 37.8 37.4 -0.4 Other Asian 8.8 10.3 1.5 9.9 10.7 0.8 Data sourced from Experian Automotive. Other Asian brands includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. 5.0% 0.1% -2.3% -3.9% 4.3% 8.3% 4Q '23 vs. 4Q '22 1Q '24 vs. 1Q '23 2Q '24 vs. 2Q '23 3Q '24 vs. 3Q '23 4Q '24 vs. 4Q '23 1Q '25 vs. 1Q '24 % change vs. year earlier California and U.S New Light Vehicle Registrations Year to date 2024 and 2025 thru March Market got off to a strong start in First Quarter of this year State new light vehicle registrations increased 8.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 versus a year earlier, above the 4.6 percent improvement in the U.S. Outlook for rest of year is clouded Pent-up-demand, combined with improvements in affordability were expected to propel the market in 2025. However, the potential overhaul of U.S. trade policy has added significant unknowns into the new vehicle sales outlook. Initial reports indicate a surge in new vehicle purchases in the months of March and April in anticipation of the implementation of these tariffs, however it remains to be seen if they will result in higher vehicle prices. Current prediction is for state new vehicle registrations to fall to 1.71 million units for all of this year, a 2.3 percent decline from 2024. Due to the fluid nature of current trade policy, the projection is subject to change. Tesla loses ground in state ZEV market Tesla registrations in the First Quarter of this year fell 15.1 percent versus year earlier, while registrations for all other ZEVs increased by 35 percent. Tesla’s share of the state electric vehicle market fell from 55.5 percent in 1Q ‘24 to 43.9 percent this year. An aging product lineup and backlash against Elon Musk’s political initiatives are likely key factors for the decline in Tesla BEV market share. ZEV market share declined slightly in first quarter of 2025 ZEV market share in the state was 20.8 percent in the first quarter of 2025, down from 21.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. KEY TRENDS IN NEW VEHICLE MARKET 31 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
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