California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Volume 21, Number 2 Released July 2025 Covering Second Quarter 2025 TM Publication Sponsored By: New Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Decline in Second Half of ‘25 TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical Data sourced from Experian Automotive. *2025 forecast by Auto Outlook. Projections do not reflect potential sales reductions due to non-economic regulatory impacts. Historical figures have been updated since the previous release. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2010 thru 2025 ANNUAL TRENDS QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 1.08 1.19 1.49 1.66 1.78 1.99 2.03 2.03 1.99 1.89 1.60 1.77 1.58 1.76 1.75 1.72 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. YTD '24 YTD '25 Change YTD '24 YTD '25 Change Registrations TOTAL 886,492 944,834 6.6% 7,730,864 8,240,579 6.6% Car 245,231 249,010 1.5% 1,475,524 1,448,691 -1.8% Light Truck 641,261 695,824 8.5% 6,255,340 6,791,888 8.6% Domestic 294,654 304,007 3.2% 3,219,946 3,441,745 6.9% European 131,748 134,257 1.9% 788,862 807,849 2.4% Japanese 375,255 409,547 9.1% 2,924,754 3,091,737 5.7% Other Asian 84,835 97,023 14.4% 797,302 899,248 12.8% Market Share Car 27.7 26.4 -1.3 19.1 17.6 -1.5 Light Truck 72.3 73.6 1.3 80.9 82.4 1.5 Domestic 33.2 32.2 -1.0 41.7 41.8 0.1 European 14.9 14.2 -0.7 10.2 9.8 -0.4 Japanese 42.4 43.3 0.9 37.8 37.5 -0.3 Other Asian 9.6 10.3 0.7 10.3 10.9 0.6 Data sourced from Experian Automotive. Other Asian brands includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. 0.1% -2.4% -4.1% 3.9% 7.8% 5.5% 1Q '24 vs. 1Q '23 2Q '24 vs. 2Q '23 3Q '24 vs. 3Q '23 4Q '24 vs. 4Q '23 1Q '25 vs. 1Q '24 2Q '25 vs. 2Q '24 % change vs. year earlier California and U.S New Light Vehicle Registrations Year to date 2024 and 2025 thru June Market got off to a strong start in first half of this year State new light vehicle registrations increased 6.6 percent during the first six months of this year versus a year earlier, identical to the U.S. market. New vehicle sales outlook expected to take a turn The prospects of higher tariffs will likely lead to rising vehicle prices, and at least in the short run, increasing inflation, lower economic growth, and stagnant household disposable income, all negatives for new vehicle sales. In addition, sales were pulled ahead this year as shoppers advanced purchases due to the anticipation of higher vehicle prices resulting from tariffs. Registrations expected to decline in second half of 2025 New vehicle registrations in the second half of the year are projected to decline by about nine percent from the year earlier. Annual total is projected to fall just short of the 1.75 million units in 2024. There is heightened uncertainty with the new vehicle sales outlook At present, this forecast is a worst case scenario. Baseline assumption is that there will be a measurable increase in tariffs that will remain in place for an extended period. If tariffs revert to levels at the beginning of this year, state registrations could exceed 1.8 million units Hybrid vehicles post big gains; ZEV share continues to slide Hybrid vehicle registrations increased 54 percent in the first half of this year and accounted for 19.2 percent of the market. ZEV share in 2Q ‘25 fell to 18.2 percent, but is likely to increase in 3Q as consumers purchase vehicles before federal government incentives expire at the of September. KEY TRENDS IN NEW VEHICLE MARKET 27 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
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