California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Released October 2025 Covering Third Quarter 2025 TM Publication Sponsored By: New Vehicle Registrations Now Predicted to Increase Slightly This Year TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical Data sourced from Experian Automotive. *2025 and 2026 forecasts by Auto Outlook. Historical figures have been updated since the previous release. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2011 thru 2026 ANNUAL TRENDS QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 1.19 1.49 1.66 1.78 1.99 2.03 2.03 1.99 1.89 1.60 1.77 1.58 1.76 1.75 1.79 1.74 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25* '26* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. YTD '24 YTD '25 Change YTD '24 YTD '25 Change Registrations TOTAL 1,313,127 1,383,543 5.4% 11,536,955 12,324,530 6.8% Car 360,938 356,402 -1.3% 2,187,145 2,102,558 -3.9% Light Truck 952,189 1,027,141 7.9% 9,349,810 10,221,972 9.3% Domestic 443,942 450,910 1.6% 4,822,672 5,170,359 7.2% European 193,023 196,045 1.6% 1,165,626 1,182,151 1.4% Japanese 548,223 593,059 8.2% 4,336,573 4,599,441 6.1% Other Asian 127,939 143,529 12.2% 1,212,084 1,372,579 13.2% Market Share Car 27.5 25.8 -1.7 19.0 17.1 -1.9 Light Truck 72.5 74.2 1.7 81.0 82.9 1.9 Domestic 33.8 32.6 -1.2 41.8 42.0 0.2 European 14.7 14.2 -0.5 10.1 9.6 -0.5 Japanese 41.8 42.9 1.1 37.6 37.3 -0.3 Other Asian 9.7 10.4 0.7 10.5 11.1 0.6 Data sourced from Experian Automotive. Other Asian brands includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. -2.4% -4.2% 3.6% 7.4% 5.1% 3.6% 2Q '24 vs. 2Q '23 3Q '24 vs. 3Q '23 4Q '24 vs. 4Q '23 1Q '25 vs. 1Q '24 2Q '25 vs. 2Q '24 3Q '25 vs. 3Q '24 % change vs. year earlier California and U.S New Light Vehicle Registrations Year to date 2024 and 2025 thru September Market maintained growth in third quarter of 2025. California new light vehicle registrations increased 5.4% during the first nine months of this year versus a year earlier, just below the 6.1% improvement in the nation. Third quarter registrations were up 3.6% compared to 3Q ‘24, surpassing expectations. Sales likely to soften in fourth quarter and 2026. Elevated uncertainty surrounds the new vehicle sales outlook. The likelihood of higher vehicle prices, rising inflation, and slower economic growth, all due to increasing tariffs, should negatively impact sales. However, pinpointing the magnitude and timing of these impacts has proven elusive. An example is the better-than-expected results in the third quarter of this year. Tariff-related headwinds should lower sales, but pent-up demand and lower interest rates should prevent a significant decline. Registrations are now predicted to increase slightly from 2023 to 2024, with a small decline expected next year. ZEV sales increase sharply in third quarter as federal government incentives expire. Registrations of new zero-emission vehicles increased sharply in the third quarter of this year. Market share increased to 24.7 percent, up from 18.2 percent in the second quarter. That will likely mark the high point in market share for the foreseeable future, however, due to the expiration of federal government incentives. Hybrid vehicle market share declined in the third quarter as consumers shifted purchases to ZEVs to take advantage of the expiring incentives. Hybrid vehicle share is likely to rebound in the coming months. KEY TRENDS IN NEW VEHICLE MARKET 27 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
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