California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Released January 2026 Covering Fourth Quarter 2025 TM Publication Sponsored By: New Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Decline Slightly in 2026 TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical Data sourced from Experian Automotive. *2026 forecast by Auto Outlook. Historical figures have been updated since the previous release. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2011 thru 2026 ANNUAL TRENDS QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 1.19 1.49 1.66 1.78 1.99 2.03 2.03 1.99 1.89 1.60 1.77 1.58 1.761.751.811.78 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. 2024 2025 Change 2024 2025 Change Registrations TOTAL 1,748,689 1,806,762 3.3% 15,457,894 16,102,983 4.2% Car 478,419 463,741 -3.1% 2,914,244 2,688,920 -7.7% Light Truck 1,270,270 1,343,021 5.7% 12,543,650 13,414,063 6.9% Domestic 583,201 586,050 0.5% 6,448,504 6,766,496 4.9% European 259,825 255,684 -1.6% 1,584,766 1,543,626 -2.6% Japanese 731,941 774,618 5.8% 5,766,721 5,976,113 3.6% Other Asian 173,722 190,410 9.6% 1,657,903 1,816,748 9.6% Market Share Car 27.4 25.7 -1.7 18.9 16.7 -2.2 Light Truck 72.6 74.3 1.7 81.1 83.3 2.2 Domestic 33.4 32.4 -1.0 41.7 42.0 0.3 European 14.9 14.2 -0.7 10.3 9.6 -0.7 Japanese 42.0 42.9 0.9 37.3 37.1 -0.2 Other Asian 9.9 10.5 0.6 10.7 11.3 0.6 Data sourced from Experian Automotive. Other Asian brands includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. -4.2% 3.6% 7.2% 4.8% 3.3% -1.9% 3Q '24 vs. 3Q '23 4Q '24 vs. 4Q '23 1Q '25 vs. 1Q '24 2Q '25 vs. 2Q '24 3Q '25 vs. 3Q '24 4Q '25 vs. 4Q '24 % change vs. year earlier California and U.S New Light Vehicle Registrations 2024 and 2025 Annual Totals State new vehicle market improved in 2025. California new light vehicle registrations increased 3.3 percent from 2024 to 2025, slightly below the 4.2 percent improvement in the nation. As expected, the market declined in the fourth quarter, with registrations falling 1.9 percent versus the year earlier. California new vehicle registrations predicted to decline slightly in 2026. Transaction prices nearing $50,000 are making new vehicle purchases a stretch for many consumers. Additionally, tariffs will almost certainly lead to rising vehicle prices, the labor market is weakening, and household incomes are barely keeping pace with inflation. However, the news isn’t entirely bleak. The average age of vehicles on the road is at a record high, partly due to postponed purchases since the pandemic. This resulting pent-up demand, coupled with the prospects of lower interest rates, should limit any potential decline in sales in 2026. New vehicle registrations this year are predicted to slip below 1.8 million units and fall 1.5 percent from 2025. ZEV sales declined sharply at the end of 2025. New registrations of ZEVs headed lower during the last few months of 2025 due to the expiration of federal government tax credits. ZEV share of the new vehicle market was 22.2 percent during the first ten months of 2025 and declined to just 12.8 percent in November and December. Hybrid registrations increased 36 percent last year, and market share reached 19.4 percent, up more than ten percentage points versus points three years earlier. KEY TRENDS IN NEW VEHICLE MARKET 24 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
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