California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Released April 2026 Covering First Quarter 2026 TM Publication Sponsored By: New Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Decline to 1.74 Million Units in 2026 TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical Data sourced from Experian Automotive. *2026 forecast by Auto Outlook. Historical figures have been updated since the previous release. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2011 thru 2026 ANNUAL TRENDS QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 1.19 1.49 1.66 1.78 1.99 2.03 2.03 1.99 1.89 1.60 1.77 1.58 1.76 1.75 1.80 1.74 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. YTD '25 YTD '26 Change YTD '25 YTD '26 Change Registrations TOTAL 457,525 416,810 -8.9% 3,871,053 3,692,010 -4.6% Car 119,235 100,920 -15.4% 691,714 591,023 -14.6% Light Truck 338,290 315,890 -6.6% 3,179,339 3,100,987 -2.5% Domestic 145,356 125,512 -13.7% 1,596,361 1,513,311 -5.2% European 69,534 60,551 -12.9% 404,197 345,924 -14.4% Japanese 195,533 186,497 -4.6% 1,454,533 1,415,057 -2.7% Other Asian 47,102 44,250 -6.1% 415,962 417,718 0.4% Market Share Car 26.1 24.2 -1.9 17.9 16.0 -1.9 Light Truck 73.9 75.8 1.9 82.1 84.0 1.9 Domestic 31.8 30.1 -1.7 41.2 41.0 -0.2 European 15.2 14.5 -0.7 10.4 9.4 -1.0 Japanese 42.7 44.8 2.1 37.7 38.3 0.6 Other Asian 10.3 10.6 0.3 10.7 11.3 0.6 Data sourced from Experian Automotive. Other Asian brands includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. 3.5% 7.1% 4.6% 2.9% -2.2% -8.9% 4Q '24 vs. 4Q '23 1Q '25 vs. 1Q '24 2Q '25 vs. 2Q '24 3Q '25 vs. 3Q '24 4Q '25 vs. 4Q '24 1Q '26 vs. 1Q '25 % change vs. year earlier California and U.S New Light Vehicle Registrations Year-to-date 2025 and 2026 thru March State new vehicle market moved lower in first quarter of this year. California new light vehicle registrations declined 8.9 percent during the first three months of this year versus the same period in 2025. The U.S. market fell 4.6 percent. California new vehicle registrations predicted to fall from 2025 to 2026. Statewide new vehicle registrations are predicted to slip to 1.74 million units for all of this year, down 3.4 percent from 2025. This year’s total should easily exceed the recent low point of 1.58 million in 2022. Key forecast determinants point to a decline in new vehicle market. Affordability remains the market’s primary concern. Finance costs are still high due to high interest rates, vehicle transaction prices are nearing $50,000, and income growth is barely keeping up with inflation. Higher tariffs will also negatively impact sales in 2026 because of higher vehicle prices and overall inflation. Unforeseen events like fluctuating tariff rates, the phase-out of BEV tax credits, the war in Iran, and rising gasoline prices have all added to the uncertainty. This has led to a significant drop in consumer confidence, reaching near record lows. The heightened uncertainty makes people hesitant to make big purchases like cars. Pent-up demand should limit the sales decline. New vehicle sales since the onset of the pandemic have been below average. And the Great Recession of 2009 was called great for a reason: it took nearly seven years for sales to return to normal levels. Due to this extended period of belowaverage sales, the vehicle fleet is aging. Vehicle purchases have been postponed, which will provide support to the market. KEY TRENDS IN NEW VEHICLE MARKET 28 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
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