Page 8 California Auto Outlook Used Vehicle Market Moved Higher in Beginning of This Year Percent Change in New and Used Vehicle Registrations YTD ‘26 thru March vs. YTD ‘25 THREE KEY TRENDS IN USED VEHICLE MARKET Data sourced from Experian Automotive. CALIFORNIA USED VEHICLE MARKET 01. 02. The state used vehicle market increased by less than 1 percent in the first quarter of this year versus year earlier, compared to the 8.9 percent drop in the new vehicle market. As shown on the graph to the left, registrations for 3-year-old or newer vehicles increased 8.4 percent during the first three months of this year. The 4- to 6-year old market declined 9.6 percent. Supplies of 4 and 6-year-old vehicles are likely to decline this year versus year earlier. Availability of 3-year-old vehicles should improve (see graph below). 03. -8.9% 0.9% 8.4% -9.6% -2.9% New vehicles All used vehicles 3-year-old or newer used vehicles 4- to 6-year-old used vehicles 7- to 10-year-old used vehicles Data sourced from Experian Automotive. TRACKING USED VEHICLE SUPPLY Percent Change in Potential Vehicle Supply by Age of Vehicle - 2026 vs. 2025 The table and graph below provide insight into available used vehicle supplies by model year for 2026. The logic is straightforward: availability of used vehicles is a function of historical new vehicle registrations. As shown in the table for instance, the supply of 3-year-old vehicles this year is based on new vehicle registrations three years earlier (2023). Supply of 3-year-old vehicles last year was new vehicle registrations in 2022. Comparing new vehicle registrations in 2022 and 2023 provides an indicator of how 3-year-old used vehicle availability with be changing from 2025 to 2026. As shown on the table and graph, 4 and 6-year-old vehicles will be harder to come by this year, while availability of 3 and 5-year-old vehicles should improve. Supplies of 3-Year-Old or Newer Vehicles Should Improve This Year Tracking Used Vehicle Supply by Age of Vehicle for 2026 Supply in 2025 = new vehicle regs. in 2023: Supply in 2026 = new vehicle regs. in 2024: % change 1,763,031 1,748,162 -0.8% Supply in 2025 = new vehicle regs. in 2022: Supply in 2026 = new vehicle regs. in 2023: % change 1,581,099 1,763,031 11.5% Supply in 2025 = new vehicle regs. in 2021: Supply in 2026 = new vehicle regs. in 2022: % change 1,765,860 1,581,099 -10.5% Supply in 2025 = new vehicle regs. in 2020: Supply in 2026 = new vehicle regs. in 2021: % change 1,596,389 1,765,860 10.6% Supply in 2025 = new vehicle regs. in 2019: Supply in 2026 = new vehicle regs. in 2020: % change 1,891,754 1,596,389 -15.6% 2-year-old vehicles 3-year-old vehicles 4-year-old vehicles 5-year-old vehicles 6-year-old vehicles -0.8% 11.5% -10.5% 10.6% -15.6% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 2-year-old vehicles 3-year-old vehicles 4-year-old vehicles 5-year-old vehicles 6-year-old vehicles 35 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
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