California Auto Outlook Comprehensive Information on the California Vehicle Market Released July 2026 Covering Second Quarter 2026 TM Publication Sponsored By: State New Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Remain Above 1.7 Million Units in 2026 TWO YEAR PERSPECTIVE Historical Data sourced from Experian Automotive. *2026 forecast by Auto Outlook. Historical figures have been updated since the previous release. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2011 thru 2026 ANNUAL TRENDS QUARTERLY RESULTS California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations Percent Change vs. Year Earlier Data sourced from Experian Automotive. 1.19 1.49 1.66 1.78 1.99 2.03 2.03 1.99 1.89 1.60 1.77 1.58 1.76 1.75 1.80 1.73 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26* New vehicle regs. (millions) Years California U.S. YTD '25 YTD '26 Change YTD '25 YTD '26 Change Registrations TOTAL 936,543 864,848 -7.7% 8,171,101 7,938,647 -2.8% Car 247,229 215,757 -12.7% 1,438,309 1,310,814 -8.9% Light Truck 689,314 649,091 -5.8% 6,732,792 6,627,833 -1.6% Domestic 300,365 264,941 -11.8% 3,405,945 3,237,135 -5.0% European 132,754 121,144 -8.7% 799,925 733,973 -8.2% Japanese 407,223 385,389 -5.4% 3,070,711 3,045,891 -0.8% Other Asian 96,201 93,374 -2.9% 894,520 921,648 3.0% Market Share Car 26.4 24.9 -1.5 17.6 16.5 -1.1 Light Truck 73.6 75.1 1.5 82.4 83.5 1.1 Domestic 32.1 30.6 -1.5 41.7 40.8 -0.9 European 14.2 14.0 -0.2 9.8 9.2 -0.6 Japanese 43.4 44.6 1.2 37.6 38.4 0.8 Other Asian 10.3 10.8 0.5 10.9 11.6 0.7 Data sourced from Experian Automotive. Other Asian brands includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. 7.0% 4.5% 2.6% -2.7% -9.1% -6.3% 1Q '25 vs. 1Q '24 2Q '25 vs. 2Q '24 3Q '25 vs. 3Q '24 4Q '25 vs. 4Q '24 1Q '26 vs. 1Q '25 2Q '26 vs. 2Q '25 % change vs. year earlier California and U.S New Light Vehicle Registrations Year-to-date 2025 and 2026 thru June State new vehicle market moved lower in first half of this year. California new light vehicle registrations declined 7.7 percent during the first six months of this year versus the same period in 2025. The U.S. market fell 2.8 percent. Market predicted to decline by 3.9 percent in 2026. Statewide new vehicle registrations are predicted to slip to 1.73 million units for all of this year, down 3.9 percent from 2025. This year’s total should easily exceed the recent low point of 1.58 million in 2022. Key forecast determinants point to a small decline in new vehicle market. Pent-up demand resulting from delayed purchases during the pandemic will place a floor on how low sales can go, while affordability issues continue to keep many prospective purchasers on the sidelines. Relatively high interest rates, elevated vehicle transaction prices, and stagnant real personal incomes have made a new vehicle purchase a stretch for many consumers. These two primary opposing forces should result in the new vehicle market drifting lower, while avoiding a significant decline. ZEV registrations declined in first half of year, but second quarter market share improves. ZEV registrations declined 24.9 percent during the first half of this year versus year earlier, but there were signs that the slide in BEV sales may be subsiding. BEV market share fell from 24.9 percent in 3Q ‘25 (before expiration of the federal government tax credits), to 13.8 percent in the first quarter of this year, but then increased to 17.8 percent in the second quarter. Hybrid vehicle share increased to 22.1 percent in the first half of this year. KEY TRENDS IN NEW VEHICLE MARKET 27 California New Car Dealer Quarterly
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTg3NDExNQ==