2014 Vol. 98 No. 1

24 HќќѠіђџȱ юћјђџ юћѢюџѦȱ2014 DIRECTORS / SENIOR MANAGEMENT The banking environment: As we move into this new year, the U.S. economy continues to plod along at a slow and steady pace. Things Š›ŽȱŽĴ’—ȱ‹ŽĴŽ›ǰȱ‹žȱ ŽȂ›Žȱœ’••ȱŠ›ȱ from where we were before the Great ŽŒŽœœ’˜—ȱ‹ŽŠ—ǯ Meanwhile the banking landscape has improved markedly, as earnings clocked 16 consecutive quarters of ¢ŽŠ›Ȭ˜ŸŽ›Ȭ¢ŽŠ›ȱ’—Œ›ŽŠœŽǯȱ Žž›—œȱ˜—ȱ assets remain below pre-recession levels, but they are higher than a year ago and comfortably above 1 percent. Much of the improved performance comes from healthier asset quality. Loan losses have declined to levels not seen since 2007, and provisions have fallen nearly 40 percent. All of this is good news, but make no mistake; banks face a multitude of challenges ahead. Spotlight on interest rate-risk. Not the least of these challenges is that of potential interest-rate risk ǻ Ǽǯȱ Žž•Š˜›¢ȱŠŽ—Œ’Žœȱ‘ŠŸŽȱ˜—ŒŽȱ ŠŠ’—ȱŽ•ŽŸŠŽȱ ȱŠœȱŠȱ˜ŒŠ•ȱ™˜’—ȱ˜›ȱ examiners, as evidence suggests that –Š—¢ȱꗊ—Œ’Š•ȱ’—œ’ž’˜—œȱŠ›ŽȱŠ”’—ȱ on higher levels of interest-rate risk. Balance sheets have changed noticeably in recent years, as loan demand has been weak, and shortterm rates have hugged historic lows. ‘’œȱŒ˜ž•ȱ•ŽŠŸŽȱ‘Ž–ȱœ’—’ęŒŠ—•¢ȱ exposed to a sustained increase in interest rates. ȱ Šœȱ Œ˜‹Ž›ȱ‘Žȱ ŽŽ›Š•ȱ Ž™˜œ’ȱ Insurance Corp. released a Financial —œ’ž’˜—ȱ ŽĴŽ›ȱ˜—ȱœŽ—œ’’Ÿ’¢ȱ˜ȱ market risk. Simultaneously the ĜŒŽȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱ ˜–™›˜••Ž›ȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱ Currency conducted a webinar to Š›Žœœȱ‘Žȱ ȱ’œœžŽœȱ’ȱŽŽ–Žȱ most important. There is a consensus among regulators that the essential risk for banks stems from long-term (or high-duration) assets funded by non-maturity deposits that have surged into bank balance sheets in ‘Žȱ Š”Žȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱ ›ŽŠȱ ŽŒŽœœ’˜—ǯȱ ‘Žȱ’—Ěž¡ȱ˜ȱȃœž›ŽȱŽ™˜œ’œȄȱ‘Šœȱ regulators concerned about the potential for fast-rising interest expense from rate-sensitive liabilities. At the same time, asset values could come under greater pressure than in past rate cycles, because ŽěŽŒ’ŸŽȱž›Š’˜—œȱŠ›Žȱ›Ž•Š’ŸŽ•¢ȱ‘’‘ǯȱ The price risk of some investment ™˜›˜•’˜œȱ‘Šœȱ’—Œ›ŽŠœŽȱœ’—’ęŒŠ—•¢ȱ in the past few years, due to lengthened maturities, options risk and declining yields. Management tools. The regulatory concerns should cause bank managers to ponder several questions about the reporting tools that they have at their disposal: 1. ˜ȱ Žȱ‘ŠŸŽȱ›Ž™˜›œȱ‘Šȱ™›˜“ŽŒȱ securities depreciation relative to capital in a rising-rate environment? 2. ˜Žœȱ˜ž›ȱ ȱ–˜Ž•ȱœ‘˜Œ”ȱ‘ŽȱŠ’›ȱ value of regulatory and risk-based capital ratios, as well as simple equity capital? Interest-Rate Risk: A Priority for 2014 JEFFREY F. CAUGHRON The Baker Group LP яќѢѡȱѡѕђȱ Ѣѡѕќџ Žě›Ž¢ȱ ǯȱ Šž‘›˜—ȱ’œȱŠœœ˜Œ’ŠŽȱ™Š›—Ž›ȱ ’‘ȱ ‘Žȱ Baker Group LP, Oklahoma City, and works as a market analyst and portfolio strategist. He has ˜›”Žȱ’—ȱꗊ—Œ’Š•ȱ–Š›”ŽœȱŠ—ȱ‘ŽȱœŽŒž›’’Žœȱ industry for more than 20 years. Caughron’s trading experience includes several years on the Treasury desk for an international bank on Wall Street and subsequent positions trading mortgage- ‹ŠŒ”ŽȱœŽŒž›’’ŽœȱŠ—ȱ˜‘Ž›ȱŠ¡Š‹•Žȱę¡ŽȬ’—Œ˜–Žȱ products for regional broker/dealers. Additionally he managed a $600 million investment portfolio ˜›ȱŠȱ•Š›Žȱ›Ž’˜—Š•ȱꗊ—Œ’Š•ȱ’—œ’ž’˜—ǯȱ Šž‘›˜—ȱ‘Šœȱ™ž‹•’œ‘Žȱ numerous articles on risk management topics and frequently is quoted ’—ȱ‘Žȱꗊ—Œ’Š•ȱ™›Žœœǯȱ ŽȱœŽ›ŸŽœȱ˜—ȱ‘ŽȱŠŒž•¢ȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱ ’ Žœȱ Œ‘˜˜•ȱ for Community Bankers and the Bank Operations Institute. The author can be reached at 800-937-2257, email: jcaughron@gobaker.com. The Š”Ž›ȱ ›˜ž™ȱ’œȱŠȱ ’Š–˜—ȱ œœ˜Œ’ŠŽȱ Ž–‹Ž›ȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱ —’Š—Šȱ Š—”Ž›œȱ Association and an IBA Preferred Service Provider.

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