2014 Vol. 98 No. 7

16 HќќѠіђџȱ юћјђџ ѢљѦȱ2014 DIRECTORS / SENIOR MANAGEMENT ‘Žȱ‹Š—”’—ȱŽ—Ÿ’›˜—–Ž—DZȱIt is no surprise that community banks have seen their net interest margin fall in recent years. We know that ž—’—ȱŒ˜œœȱ‘’ȱ‹˜Ĵ˜–ȱœ˜–Žȱ’–Žȱ ago, while yields on earning assets Œ˜—’—žŽȱ˜ȱ ‘’Ĵ•Žȱ•˜ Ž›ǯȱ •Ž›ȱ •˜Š—œȱŠ—ȱ‹˜—œȱ™Š’ȱ˜ěȱ˜›ȱ–Šž›Žȱ and were replaced by newer and much lower-yielding assets. As noted by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., margin compression is especially problematic for smaller institutions, since three-quarters of their net operating revenue comes from net interest income. Clearly, community banks have a great incentive to focus on their asset/liability management processes. Dynamic Analysis ȱ Š—”ȱꗊ—Œ’Š•ȱ™Ž›˜›–Š—ŒŽȱ’œȱ‘Žȱ result of dynamic processes. Balance sheets are constantly changing, as ‘ŽȱŸ˜•ž–Žœȱ˜ȱ’쎛Ž—ȱŠœœŽœȱŠ—ȱ liabilities, the rates paid (or earned) ˜—ȱ‘˜œŽȱ‹Š•Š—ŒŽœǰȱŠ—ȱ‘ŽȱŒŠœ‘ȱ̘ œȱ moving into and out of those ac- Œ˜ž—œȱŠ›Žȱ̞ŒžŠ’—ȱŠ—ȱž—™›Ž’Œ- able. What we need to know is, given the mix of assets and liabilities and the rates associated with them, how can we expect margins and earnings ˜ȱ™Ž›˜›–ȱž—Ž›ȱ’쎛Ž—ȱ›ŠŽȱŽ—Ÿ’- ronments, as the re-pricing assets and •’Š‹’•’’ŽœȱꕝŽ›ȱ‘›˜ž‘ȱ‘Žȱ‹Š•Š—ŒŽȱ sheet over time? In order to perform this analysis, we must have tools that allow us to make assumptions about rate changes, options risk, curve shifts, prepayments, and sensitivities or betas. The ultimate point of the exercise is to determine how the bank is positioned, and what changes, if any, the bank may wish to make in order to shore up exposures to interest-rate risk. Every Balance Sheet Is Different Each community bank has unique characteristics and ways of doing ‹žœ’—Žœœȱ‘Šȱ›ŽĚŽŒȱ‘ŽȱŽŒ˜—˜–’Œȱ landscape of the market it serves. Some are loan-driven suburban banks that face strong competition for deposits. Others do business in agricultural communities, where loan demand and deposit growth are driven by seasonal factors. The one trait they all have in common is the fact that they operate in the same interest-rate environment at any given point in time. Every bank must assess its exposure to interestrate risk and the interplay of three subcategories of risk: re-pricing risk, yield curve risk and options risk. Re-pricing risk. Re-pricing risk re- œž•œȱ›˜–ȱ’쎛Ž—ŒŽœȱ’—ȱ‘Žȱ’–’—ȱ˜ȱ rate changes and the timing of cash ̘ œȱ‘ŠȱŠ›Žȱ‹ž’•ȱ’—˜ȱ‘Žȱ™›’Œ’—ȱ and maturity structure of a bank’s balance sheet. For most banks, repricing risk is the most visible source of interest-rate risk, and is measured by comparing the volume of a bank’s assets that mature or re-price within a given time period with the volume ˜ȱ•’Š‹’•’’Žœȱ‘Šȱ˜ȱœ˜ǯȱ ŠŽȱ’쎛Ž—- tials are then applied to the re-pricing balances, so that income and expense changes can be projected. Yield curve risk. The nature of banking is such that banks borrow short and lend (or invest) long. The shape of the yield curve is dictated by the relationship between shortterm rates and long-term rates. From the bank’s perspective, it’s ‘Žȱ’쎛Ž—ŒŽȱ‹Ž ŽŽ—ȱž—’—ȱŒ˜œȱ and earning asset yield. Relative rate changes cause the yield curve to ̊ĴŽ—ǰȱœŽŽ™Ž—ȱ˜›ȱ‹ŽŒ˜–Žȱ—ŽŠ’ŸŽ•¢ȱ sloped (inverted) during the course of an interest-rate cycle. Yield curve variation can exacerbate the risk of a bank’s position by magnifying the ŽěŽŒȱ˜ȱ–Šž›’¢ȱ–’œ–ŠŒ‘Žœǯȱ ˜ȱ ž›‘Ž›ȱŒ˜–™•’ŒŠŽȱ–ŠĴŽ›œǰȱ‘ŽœŽȱ maturity mismatches are often ž—ŒŽ›Š’—ȱŠ—ȱ’ĜŒž•ȱ˜ȱ™›Ž’ŒǰȱžŽȱ to options risk. œœŽȦ ’Š‹’•’¢ȱ Š—ŠŽ–Ž— Š—ȱ Š•Š—ŒŽȱ ‘ŽŽȱ ¢—Š–’Œœ яќѢѡȱѡѕђȱ Ѣѡѕќџ Žě›Ž¢ȱ ǯȱ Šž‘›˜— is associate partner withȱ ‘Žȱ Š”Ž›ȱ ›˜ž™, Oklahoma City, and works as a market analyst and portfolio strategist. He has worked in ꗊ—Œ’Š•ȱ–Š›”ŽœȱŠ—ȱ‘ŽȱœŽŒž›’’Žœȱ’—žœ›¢ȱ˜›ȱ more than 20 years. Caughron’s trading experience includes several years on the Treasury desk for an international bank on Wall Street and subsequent positions trading mortgage-backed securities and ˜‘Ž›ȱŠ¡Š‹•Žȱę¡ŽȬ’—Œ˜–Žȱ™›˜žŒœȱ˜›ȱ›Ž’˜—Š•ȱ broker/dealers. Additionally he managed a $600 million investment ™˜›˜•’˜ȱ˜›ȱŠȱ•Š›Žȱ›Ž’˜—Š•ȱꗊ—Œ’Š•ȱ’—œ’ž’˜—ǯȱ Šž‘›˜—ȱ‘Šœȱ™ž‹•’œ‘Žȱ numerous articles on risk management topics and frequently is quoted ’—ȱ‘Žȱꗊ—Œ’Š•ȱ™›Žœœǯȱ ŽȱœŽ›ŸŽœȱ˜—ȱ‘ŽȱŠŒž•¢ȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱ ’ Žœȱ Œ‘˜˜•ȱ˜›ȱ Community Bankers and the Bank Operations Institute. The author can be reached at 800-937-2257, email: jcaughron@gobaker.com. The Baker Group is a Diamond Associate Member of the Indiana Bankers Association and an IBA Preferred Service Provider. &RQWLQXHG RQ SDJH

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