I recently read a new book called “Same as Ever,” which has a unique twist to the typical management book. The thesis is that it’s much more important to study the things that never change instead of spending time trying to predict the future. For example, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos says he’s often asked what’s going to change in the next ten years, but he almost never gets the question: “What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?” And he believes the second question is more important. In his business, it’s impossible to imagine a future where Amazon customers don’t want lower prices and fast shipping. And so, he puts enormous investment into those unchanging customer desires. As we enter a new year with a new administration taking shape, it’s tempting to relax and miss the lessons of the book for the FHLBank System. Under the Trump administration, FHFA Director Sandra Thompson, architect of the “FHLBank System at 100” Report, will likely be asked to resign. Pending regulatory actions may be put on hold. Some efforts may not be dead, as some initiatives have months of momentum behind them, but we hope many of the detrimental efforts will become dormant. But putting aside what looks like good news, what are the almost universal truths when it comes to the FHLBs? Here are three of my thoughts along with a conclusion on where to invest our efforts. These views are mine alone and not the official position of the FHLBank System. First, I think we can count on the universal truth that many in regulatory positions over the FHLBs will want to be generous with our money. The most egregious example I saw of this tendency in 2024 was a stern letter from the Deputy Secretary of the Treasury. By law, the FHLBanks contribute 10% of income to affordable housing. The Deputy Secretary strongly suggested this be increased to 20% and, most shocking, suggested the banks collectively contribute $20 billion of capital over their regulatory minimums to a Department of Treasury housing slush fund. BY JOE KESLER, MEMBER DIRECTOR, FHLB MONTANA WHAT NEVER CHANGES AT THE FHLB Community Banker 15
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