Revolution, every American president has been presented with the option of engaging Iran militarily, and all refused due to the possibility of cascading negative consequences from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to the massive human toll. The Trump administration clearly received a lot more than they bargained for in Iran’s response, as U.S. officials have already indicated that simply reopening the strait could be a condition for ending the conflict. It’s not a good sign for the long-term viability of the conflict from the American side if government officials are already conceding merely to establish conditions that existed before the conflict began. It is an indirect confession from the U.S. government that the decision to start the conflict was an enormous mistake. They’re now stuck in a mode of trying to fix problems that they created by attacking in the first place. The vessels that pass through the Strait of Hormuz not only carry oil, but fertilizer for food, aluminum for key infrastructure, helium for semiconductors and various petrochemicals key for pharmaceuticals and manufacturing. The closure is creating a chain reaction, as the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a leading European research center specializing in global trade and macroeconomic modeling, detailed in a recent report. “The initial disruption reduces the supply of oil and gas, driving up energy prices. These higher costs feed directly into chemical production, particularly in gas-intensive sectors such as fertilizers. As fertilizer prices rise, agricultural production becomes more expensive, pushing up food prices. Each stage amplifies the previous one. What begins as a shock in one sector propagates through the entire economic system, producing effects that are larger and more persistent than standard models would predict,” the report states. “In many countries, the crisis operates through multiple channels simultaneously. Farmers face higher input costs due to rising fertilizer prices. At the same time, consumers confront higher food prices in local markets. Governments, already under fiscal pressure, struggle to subsidize essentials or stabilize supply. The result is a convergence of pressures that can quickly translate into social and political strain. The study’s modeling captures the economic dimension of this process, but the implications extend far beyond economics.” 11
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