131,612 142,548 142,442 145,300 2022 Actual 2023 Actual 2024 Actual 2025 Forecast 2023 2024 % Chg. Mkt. Share Annual Annual '23 to '24 2024 TOTAL 142,548 142,442 -0.1% Car 40,608 35,838 -11.7% 25.2% Light Truck 101,940 106,604 4.6% 74.8% Domestic 50,225 46,115 -8.2% 32.4% European 20,032 19,807 -1.1% 13.9% Japanese 58,013 61,254 5.6% 43.0% Korean 14,278 15,266 6.9% 10.7% Fourth Quarter 2024 Released January, 2025 Market Summary Forecast for County New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. DOWN 9.6% vs. ‘21 UP 8.3% vs. ‘22 DOWN 0.1% vs. ‘23 UP 2.0% vs. ‘24 San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market FORECAST County New Vehicle Market Predicted to Improve in 2025 1. County market was flat in 2024. U.S. improved 3.1% 2. Total registrations exceeded 142,000 last year, up from the recent low of 131,612 in 2022. 3. Market was up 1.7% in 4Q ‘24 vs. year earlier, stronger than the 5.2% decline in 3Q. 4. San Diego County Japanese brand market share was higher than U.S. (see page 3). 5. Hybrid vehicles powered the market in ‘24. New hybrid vehicle registrations increased 26% and market share exceeded 16%. 6. Tesla Model Y, Toyota RAV4, and Honda CR-V were top three sellers in San Diego County market. Toyota Tundra had a large percentage increase from 2023 to 2024 (see page 5). Below is a list of six primary questions and answers regarding the San Diego County new retail light vehicle market. How did the County market perform in 2024? County new light vehicle registrations slipped 0.1% from 2023 to 2024, off from the 8.3% improvement from 2022 to 2023. What is the outlook for 2025? Registrations for all of this year are predicted to exceed 145,000 units and increase 2.0% from 2024 (see graph below). What are the key factors impacting new vehicle sales this year? Potential changes in government policies during 2025 (i.e, possible tax cuts, increase in tariffs, and reductions in labor force due to deportations) introduce elevated uncertainty into the outlook for new vehicle sales. Most economists agree that collectively, these policy initiatives would accelerate inflation, potentially reversing recent improvements in affordability. Despite these potential negatives, we think a strong labor market and pent- up demand accumulated during five years of below average sales should be sufficient to push the market higher in 2025. A big increase does not seem likely, however. Which brands posted gains during all of 2024 and which finished the year strong? County new retail registrations for Lexus, GMC, Toyota, Rivian, Land Rover, and Kia increased by more than 7% last year. Rivian, Mercedes, Land Rover, Toyota, and Jeep gained some momentum as the year ended, with 4Q ‘24 registrations increasing by more than 14% from 3Q. Based on a comparison to U.S. market share, which brands are strong performers in the county market? The analysis on page 5 compares actual registrations in the county for each of the top 30 selling brands to a calculated target. The target equals county registrations required for the brand to attain the same county market share as in the Nation. Actual registrations significantly exceeded target for Tesla, Toyota, Honda, BMW, and Mercedes. What are recent trends in the battery electric vehicle market? BEV registrations were up 3% last year, higher than the slight 0.1% drop in the overall market. Market share gains leveled off, however. BEV share increased by 5.7 share points from 2022 to 2023, but improved by just 0.7 points last year. 4Q ‘24 BEV share was 22.0%, down from 24.2% in 3Q. Six Key facts for County New Vehicle Market The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2022 through 2024, and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2025. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive.
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