131,577 142,535 142,527 138,500 2022 Actual 2023 Actual 2024 Actual 2025 Baseline Forecast YTD '24 YTD '25 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Mar. thru Mar. '24 to '25 YTD '25 TOTAL 35,561 36,378 2.3% Car 9,241 8,435 -8.7% 23.2% Light Truck 26,320 27,943 6.2% 76.8% Domestic 12,038 10,709 -11.0% 29.4% European 5,171 5,670 9.6% 15.6% Japanese 14,980 15,905 6.2% 43.7% Other Asian 3,372 4,094 21.4% 11.3% First Quarter 2025 Released April 2025 Market Summary Forecast for County New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations DOWN 9.6% vs. ‘21 UP 8.3% vs. ‘22 NO CHANGE vs. ‘23 DOWN 2.8% vs. ‘24 San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2022 through 2024, and Auto Outlook’s baseline projection for 2025. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Other Asian includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. FORECAST Outlook for 2025 is Clouded Due to Tariffs Outlook for San Diego County New Vehicle Market Baseline Forecast Key assumptions: tariffs are scaled back somewhat from current rates but remain above prior levels; vehicle prices increase by no more than 5%; minimal interest rate cuts by the Fed; inflation drifts higher; and economic growth slows. Forecast: 138,500 units, down 2.8% vs. ‘24 Alternative Upside Forecast Key assumptions: tariffs are largely removed and revert to prior levels; vehicle prices remain stable; several interest rate reductions by the Fed; inflation eases; and economic growth improves as the year progresses. This is similar to the forecast projection in January of this year. Forecast: 145,400 units, up 2.0% vs. ‘24 Alternative Downside Forecast Key assumptions: tensions escalate and tariffs are increased; vehicle prices surge by roughly 10%; no interest rate cuts; inflation accelerates; and the economy enters recession. Forecast: 128,100 units, down 10.1% vs. ‘24 There is heightened uncertainty for the new vehicle sales outlook in 2025. Some tariffs were dialed back in early April, but automotive and raw material tariffs are still in place, and the trade scenario is far from settled. Below are three scenarios for the forecast incorporating varying assumptions for tariffs and economic outcomes. Below is a review of key trends in the county new vehicle market. Market got off to a decent start in First Quarter of this year County new retail registrations increased 2.3% in the First Quarter of 2025 versus a year earlier, below the 4.9% improvement in the state. As shown on the following page, U.S. equivalent SAAR levels in the county reached 15.3 million units in 1Q ‘25. Outlook for rest of year is clouded Pent-up-demand, combined with improvements in affordability were expected to propel the market in 2025. However, the potential overhaul of U.S. trade policy has added significant unknowns into the new vehicle sales outlook. The sidebar on the right presents three forecast scenarios for county new vehicle registrations this year, incorporating varying assumptions for tariff policies and economic outcomes. After the events of the past few weeks, it’s safe to say that things are likely to change, so stay tuned. Tesla suffers losses in county market Tesla registrations in the First Quarter of this year fell 26.6% versus year earlier, while registrations for all other BEVs increased 41%. Tesla’s share of the county electric vehicle market fell from 58.1% in 1Q ‘24 to just 41.8% this year. An aging product lineup and backlash against Elon Musk’s political initiatives are key factors in the decline. Toyota is strong performer in county Small SUV segment; Rivian stands out among Mid and Full Size Luxury SUVs As show on page 4, Toyota accounted for 21.4% of the county Small SUV segment, well above its 14.3% share in the Nation. Rivian was a relatively strong performer in the Mid and Full Size Luxury SUV segment.
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