343,248 371,203 377,409 369,900 2022 Actual 2023 Actual 2024 Actual 2025 Baseline Forecast First Quarter 2025 Released April 2025 Market Summary Forecast for State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations DOWN 14.9% vs. ‘21 UP 8.1% vs. ‘22 UP 1.7% vs. ‘23 DOWN 2.0% vs. ‘24 Georgia Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the Georgia new vehicle market TM YTD '24 YTD '25 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Mar. thru Mar. '24 to '25 YTD '25 TOTAL 90,780 97,726 7.7% Car 19,689 18,827 -4.4% 19.3% Light Truck 71,091 78,899 11.0% 80.7% Domestic 33,021 38,647 17.0% 39.6% European 9,335 9,579 2.6% 9.8% Japanese 36,791 36,279 -1.4% 37.1% Other Asian 11,633 13,221 13.7% 13.5% The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2022 through 2024, and Auto Outlook’s baseline projection for 2025. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Other Asian includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. FORECAST Outlook for 2025 is Clouded Due to Tariffs Outlook for Georgia New Vehicle Market Baseline Forecast Key assumptions: tariffs are scaled back somewhat from current rates but remain above prior levels; vehicle prices increase by no more than 5%; minimal interest rate cuts by the Fed; inflation drifts higher; and economic growth slows. Forecast: 369,900 units, down 2.0% vs. ‘24 Alternative Upside Forecast Key assumptions: tariffs are largely removed and revert to prior levels; vehicle prices remain stable; several interest rate reductions by the Fed; inflation eases; and economic growth improves as the year progresses. This is similar to the forecast projection in January of this year. Forecast: 388,400 units, up 2.9% vs. ‘24 Alternative Downside Forecast Key assumptions: tensions escalate and tariffs are increased; vehicle prices surge by roughly 10%; no interest rate cuts; inflation accelerates; and the economy enters recession. Forecast: 342,300 units, down 9.3% vs. ‘24 There is heightened uncertainty for the new vehicle sales outlook in 2025. Some tariffs were dialed back in early April, but automotive and raw material tariffs are still in place, and the trade scenario is far from settled. Below are three scenarios for the forecast incorporating varying assumptions for tariffs and economic outcomes. Below is a review of key trends in the state new vehicle market. Market got off to a strong start in First Quarter of this year State New retail light vehicle registrations increased 7.7% in the First Quarter of 2025 versus a year earlier, above the 4.2% improvement in the U.S. As shown on the following page, U.S. equivalent SAAR levels in the state were 16.5 million units in 1Q ‘25. Outlook for rest of year is clouded Pent-up-demand, combined with improvements in affordability were expected to propel the market in 2025. However, the potential overhaul of U.S. trade policy has added significant unknowns into the new vehicle sales outlook. The sidebar on the right presents three forecast scenarios for state new vehicle registrations this year, incorporating varying assumptions for tariff policies and economic outcomes. After the events of the past few weeks, it’s safe to say that things are likely to change, so stay tuned. Battery Electric Vehicles Post Gains in state market BEV market share in the state reached an all-time high in the First Quarter of this year - 8.9%, up from 7.5% in 4Q ‘24. Tesla accounted for nearly 52.3% of the state BEV market. Nissan is strong performer in state Small SUV segment; Lexus stands out among Mid and Full Size Luxury SUVs As show on page 4, Nissan accounted for 9.9% of the state Small SUV segment, well above its 6.5% share in the Nation. Lexus was a relatively strong performer in the Mid and Full Size Luxury SUV segment.
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