343,282 371,242 377,439 379,100 2022 Actual 2023 Actual 2024 Actual 2025 Forecast Second Quarter 2025 Released July 2025 Market Summary Forecast for State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations DOWN 14.9% vs. ‘21 UP 8.1% vs. ‘22 UP 1.7% vs. ‘23 UP 0.4% vs. ‘24 Georgia Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the Georgia new vehicle market TM YTD '24 YTD '25 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru June thru June '24 to '25 YTD '25 TOTAL 185,110 204,196 10.3% Car 40,831 40,198 -1.6% 19.7% Light Truck 144,279 163,998 13.7% 80.3% Domestic 67,907 79,546 17.1% 39.0% European 18,374 19,023 3.5% 9.3% Japanese 74,732 77,679 3.9% 38.0% Other Asian 24,097 27,948 16.0% 13.7% Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Other Asian includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2022 through 2024, and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2025. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. FORECAST New Vehicle Registrations Predicted to Decline in 2nd Half of ‘25 Below is a list of five key trends and developments in the Georgia new vehicle market: 1. The state market got off to a good start in the first half of this year. New retail light vehicle registrations increased 10.3% during the first six months of 2025 versus a year earlier, above the 6.4% improvement in the U.S. Some sales were undoubtedly pulled ahead as shoppers entered the market in advance of anticipated price increases due to tariffs. 2. As discussed in the sidebar on the right, there is heightened uncertainty for the new vehicle sales outlook. At this point, it looks like the market will move lower for the rest of this year. Second half registrations are predicted to decline 9.1% compared to the same period in 2024. The market is expected to decline slightly for all of this year (see graph below). 3. Hybrid vehicle sales continue to move higher. Hybrid registrations increased 57% in the first half of this year, easily outpacing the overall market. Market share reached 12.7%. BEV market share was 7.2% in the Second Quarter of this year, down from 8.8% in the First Quarter. 4. Hybrids accounted for 46% of Toyota registrations during the first six months of 2025. More than 14% of Audi, BMW, Cadillac, and Porsche registrations were BEVs. ICE powertrain share was greater than 75% for 23 of the top 30 selling brands (see page 7). 5. First half registrations increased by more than 17% for eight of the top 30 selling brands in the state: Cadillac, GMC, Mazda, Tesla, Kia, Chevrolet, Ford, and Ram. Primary Factors Driving the Georgia New Vehicle Market As 2025 approached, the outlook for new vehicle sales was positive. Affordability was likely to improve due to lower interest rates and declining transaction prices. The economy was also in relatively good shape: GDP growth was solid, unemployment remained low, incomes were on the rise, and inflation was cooling. Add in pent-up demand resulting from deferred purchases during the pandemic and ensuing supply chain disruptions, and the stage was set for improving sales. But that clear road quickly turned bumpy. U.S. trade policy was abruptly and dramatically altered, throwing a wrench into a relatively stable economic environment. The global economy is intricately interconnected, and the introduction of this level of policy uncertainty has left both businesses and consumers partially paralyzed. This level of disruption is substantial and without historical precedence, which makes isolating the impact on new vehicle sales very difficult. Bottom line: Higher tariffs will likely lead to rising vehicle prices and in the short run, increasing inflation, lower economic growth, and stagnant household disposable income, all negatives for new vehicle sales. In addition, sales were pulled ahead this year as shoppers advanced purchases due to the anticipation of higher vehicle prices resulting from tariffs. New vehicle registrations in the second half of the year are projected to decline from the year earlier, but the situation is highly dynamic and subject to change, so stay tuned.
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