157,785 160,063 171,156 165,800 2023 Actual 2024 Actual 2025 Actual 2026 Forecast First Quarter 2026 Released April 2026 Market Summary Forecast for State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations UP 4.2% vs. ‘22 UP 1.4% vs. ‘23 UP 6.9% vs. ‘24 DOWN 3.1% vs. ‘25 Louisiana Auto Outlook Coverage of the Louisiana new vehicle market TM Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Other Asian includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2023 to 2025, and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2026. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. YTD '25 YTD '26 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Mar. thru Mar. '25 to '26 YTD '26 TOTAL 40,837 38,878 -4.8% Car 5,807 5,713 -1.6% 14.7% Light Truck 35,030 33,165 -5.3% 85.3% Domestic 20,734 18,764 -9.5% 48.3% European 2,819 2,227 -21.0% 5.7% Japanese 13,009 13,047 0.3% 33.6% Other Asian 4,275 4,840 13.2% 12.4% FORECAST State New Vehicle Market Predicted to Decline 3.1% in 2026 Key factors boosting new vehicle sales Key factors holding back new vehicle sales Key Trends in Louisiana Market » State new retail light vehicle registrations are predicted to decline 3.1% for all of this year versus 2025. » Registrations in the first quarter of 2026 slipped to 38,878 units, off by 4.8% from a year earlier and below the previous five year average (see page 2). The U.S. market declined 8.5%. » BEV and PHEV registrations fell by more than 15% in the first quarter of this year (see page 6). BEV market share fell to 1.8%. » Among top 25 sellers, Nissan, Kia, Toyota, Tesla, Lexus, Genesis, and Lincoln were the only brands to have increases in registrations so far this year (see page 5). Pent up demand. New vehicle sales since the onset of the pandemic have been below average. And the Great Recession of 2009 was called great for a reason: it took nearly seven years for sales to return to normal levels. Due to this extended period of below-average sales, the vehicle fleet is aging (see below). Vehicle purchases have been postponed, which will provide support to the market. Consumers have incentive to upgrade. Average age of vehicles in operation has reached an all-time high. No question, modern vehicles are built better and last longer, but today’s models offer many upgraded features vs. the average 12.5-year-old car. Passive and active safety technology, advanced infotainment options, and alternative powertrains are just a few examples. Many vehicle owners have a strong incentive to upgrade. Declining interest rates? Prior to the Iran war, the prospects were good for interest rates to fall during 2026. But the war and subsequent increases in oil and gasoline prices have brought that into question. Lower finance rates are critical for improving affordability, which is the primary negative for the market. New vehicle affordability. Finance costs remain elevated due to high interest rates, vehicle transaction prices are hovering around $50,000, and income growth is barely keeping pace with inflation. Manufacturers can alleviate price pressures by reducing content levels and offering more affordable models, but these adjustments take time. Tariffs. Higher tariffs will negatively impact new vehicle sales in 2026. Up until now, manufacturers and dealers have largely absorbed the costs, but eventually, consumers will feel the effects. Tariffs also lead to increasing inflation in the economy, which reduces disposable household income. Uncertainty. Forecasting auto sales is always challenging, but the past 15 months have been particularly unpredictable. Unforeseen events like fluctuating tariff rates, the phaseout of BEV tax credits, the war in Iran, and rising gasoline prices have all thrown uncertainty into the outlook. Largely as a result of this ongoing tumult, consumer confidence has plummeted to near record-low levels. Heightened uncertainty makes people reluctant to make big-ticket purchases, like automobiles. 24
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