157,776 160,072 171,162 173,600 2023 Actual 2024 Actual 2025 Actual 2026 Forecast Third Quarter 2026 Released October 2026 Market Summary Forecast for State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations UP 4.2% vs. ‘22 UP 1.5% vs. ‘23 UP 6.9% vs. ‘24 UP 1.4% vs. ‘25 Louisiana Auto Outlook Coverage of the Louisiana new vehicle market TM Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Other Asian includes Genesis, Hyundai, Kia, and VinFast. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2023 to 2025, and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2026. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. YTD '25 YTD '26 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Sep. thru Sep. '25 to '26 YTD '26 TOTAL 129,319 130,673 1.0% Car 19,016 20,135 5.9% 15.4% Light Truck 110,303 110,538 0.2% 84.6% Domestic 63,548 61,312 -3.5% 46.9% European 7,846 7,022 -10.5% 5.4% Japanese 42,277 45,084 6.6% 34.5% Other Asian 15,648 17,255 10.3% 13.2% FORECAST State New Vehicle Market Expected to Drift Lower in 2027 Below is a list of four primary questions and answers regarding the Louisiana new retail light vehicle market. How has the state market performed so far this year? State new light vehicle registrations increased 1% during the first nine months of 2026 versus the same period a year earlier. The U.S. market was off 4%. State 3Q ‘26 registrations were up 5.2% versus 3Q ‘25, an improvement from the 1% increase in 2Q. What’s the outlook for new vehicle sales over the next 15 months? Registrations for all of this year are predicted to exceed 173,000 units and increase 1.4% from 2025. The market has a chance to increase in the fourth quarter of this year versus relatively weak year-earlier results. Preliminary outlook for 2027: most determinants are pointing to a small decline next year (see right), although a slight increase is not out of the question. Which brands have posted gains? Among the top 20 selling brands in the state, new vehicle registrations increased for Nissan, Tesla, Kia, Ram, Toyota, Honda, and Ford so far this year. Tesla, Kia, and Nissan fared better in the state market than in the Nation (see page 4). What are recent trends in the alternative powertrain market? Expiration of the federal government BEV tax credits shifted demand from electric vehicles to hybrids. In addition, fuel prices have increased significantly since the start of the Iran war. Both are key factors boosting sales of hybrids. Hybrid market share increased to 10.7% in the third quarter of this year and year-todate registrations were up 17% versus 2025. Primary Factors Driving the Louisiana New Vehicle Market Affordability. Several key factors for affordability are moving in the wrong direction. Interest rates are increasing, tariffs are putting upward pressure on prices, and household incomes are not keeping pace with inflation. These issues are especially acute for lower-income consumers who own many of the older vehicles that are due for replacement. While higher-income households, buoyed by increasing net worth and stock market gains, have supported the market, any growth in new vehicle sales will be difficult to achieve when a significant portion of potential buyers are not actively in the market. Consumer sentiment. Consumers are increasingly downbeat on economic conditions. Vehicle sales rarely improve when consumer attitudes are weak. Economic growth and labor market. GDP growth has remained positive, employment gains have been respectable, and unemployment rates remain low, all of which are positive for the market. Heightened uncertainty. Continually changing federal government policies and geopolitical events have unsettled the new vehicle market. More stability would provide added clarity to the outlook, but that seems unlikely. 20
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