THE ELECTIONS At the Washington Conference, we also heard from Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report. There’s not a more respected numbers man in the business, and what he told the room lined up with what you’ve been reading. The House Dave’s read was that the House is very likely to change hands, and Cook’s ratings since then point even harder that way. On Oct. 9, Cook moved 18 House races toward Democrats and pegged them at 224 seats to 234. It takes 218 for a majority, and by that math, Democrats needed only about one in five of the toss-ups to get there. A week later, on Oct. 16, Cook moved 11 more races toward Democrats, many of them in districts President Trump carried by double digits, although Republicans are still favored in eight of the 11. The real question is by how much. Dave’s point was that even a strong Democratic year may not look like 2018, because the map has fewer swing seats than it used to. By Cook’s count, the number of truly competitive districts fell from 87 to 77 after redistricting. Redistricting itself can cut both ways. Ten states redrew their maps mid-decade. Republicans came out ahead on paper, but by less than many expected. Indiana’s Senate voted its map down, South Carolina’s effort fell flat, and California and Utah went the other direction. In a year like this, some of those extra seats may not hold. Louisiana was part of that story. After the Supreme Court’s Callais decision in April, the Legislature drew a new map with one majority-Black district instead of two. The Senate The Senate is a different animal. Republicans hold 53 seats, so Democrats need a net gain of four. A year ago, that looked out of reach. Now Cook has North Carolina leaning Democratic and six Republican-held seats rated as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas. Yes, you read that right: even Texas is in play. It hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in more than 30 years, and in August, Cook moved the Paxton-Talarico race to a toss-up. Here at home, the Senate seat is open. Senator Bill Cassidy finished third in the May Republican primary, and Congresswoman Letlow beat State Treasurer John Fleming in the June runoff, so the November race is between Letlow and Jamie Davis, the Democratic nominee. Cook rates it as solid Republican. Louisiana’s House Races Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. In Louisiana, that’s the general election for U.S. Senate and an open, all-party primary for all six House seats under our new map. Any House race where nobody clears 50% goes to a runoff on Saturday, Dec. 12. The 5th and 6th Districts are the races to watch. Both are open seats, both lean Republican under the new map, and both drew a crowd. The 5th opened up when Congresswoman Letlow ran for the Senate. Six Republicans are running, including state Senator Stewart Cathey Jr., state Representative and House Majority Leader Michael Echols, state Representative Gabe Firment and Board of Regents Chair Misti Cordell. State Representative Pat Moore is among three Democrats in the race. The 6th District was redrawn after Callais to favor a Republican, and Congressman Cleo Fields is not on the ballot. State Senators Rick Edmonds and Blake Miguez are the biggest names among six Republicans. Pat Forbes, a longtime state official endorsed by former Governor John Bel Edwards, is one of three Democrats, and there’s a Libertarian too. With nine and 10 names on those ballots, it’s hard for anybody to clear 50% on Nov. 3. LSU’s Robert Hogan has pointed out that with this many Republicans splitting the vote, Democrats see an opening. Don’t be surprised if one or both go to a Dec. 12 runoff, and if the House majority comes down to a handful of seats, Louisiana could be one of the last places it gets settled. What It Means for Louisiana This is the part I want every dealer to think about, whoever you vote for: Right now, two Louisianians, House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, hold the two most powerful jobs in the U.S. House. For a state with six House seats, that’s an outsized amount of clout. The Speaker and the Majority Leader decide what comes to the floor and when. If the House flips, those jobs go to the other party, and Congressman Troy Carter, if he’s reelected, would be serving in the majority. Despite the unfortunate partisanship in Washington, our delegation works well together, and that won’t change no matter who holds the gavel. A change in leadership still resets the calendar. That’s why the weeks right after Nov. 3 matter so much for a bill like the Connected Vehicle Security Act, and it’s why LADA works both sides of the aisle. Relationships with both parties are how we protect your business no matter who’s in charge. Here’s my ask: The lame-duck session after the election is this bill’s last shot this year, and it comes with a short calendar and a long to-do list. If you know your congressional representative or one of our senators, give them a call that week and tell them you want the Connected Vehicle Security Act passed this year, with ownership language that doesn’t catch the brands our members currently sell. A call from a dealer back home carries more weight than anything I can send; if you want talking points, email me at cmcmahen@lada.org. In closing, our trip to this year’s NADA Washington Conference reinforced what I said at the top: When dealers show up and tell their story, Washington listens. What gets decided there in the next few months, both on this bill and at the ballot box, will reach every showroom in Louisiana, and LADA will keep working both sides of the aisle to make sure your voice is in the room. None of this happens without our members. Thank you for the support that makes it possible for LADA to show up in Washington and speak on your behalf. We are proud to represent you. 7
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