30 NOVEMBER / DECEMBER 2019 Net Interest Margins Where do they go from here? In June 2004, the Federal Reserve increased the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, the first of many rate increases to follow. Over the next two years, the Fed increased rates from 1% to 5.25%, a quick and aggressive tightening cycle compared to today’s cycle that has seen nine Fed rate increases over the span of 43 months. In the third quarter of 2007, the average net interest margin for all U.S. banks was 3.39%, very close to today’s average margin of 3.36%. The Fed started cutting rates rapidly in late 2007, however, and found itself zero-bound by the end of 2008. Net interest margins took an initial decline throughout 2008, but then when the Fed hit zero-bound in late 2008, average margins actually increased from 3.15% in the fourth quarter of 2008 all the way to 3.83% in the first quarter of 2010. Subsequently, over the next five years, margins compressed while rates remained near zero until the Fed started its current tightening cycle in December 2015. What was the main reason for the year-long run of margin expansion from 2009 to 2010? Cheap and abundant deposits! Banks saw their cost of funds fall to historically low levels by quickly cutting their deposit rates. Even though deposit rates were being cut, that didn’t stop the flow of funds into the banking system seeking the safety of Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. insurance during uncertain economic times. Cost of funds peaked out in late 2007 at a level approximately 55% of the then fed funds rate of 5.25%. Today’s cost of funds is approximately 30% of the current fed funds rate of 2.5%. Yes, banks’ cost of funds has steadily risen over the last few years, yet we are still at a historically low overall cost of funds. Where do we go from here? Many anticipate the Fed to cut rates two to three times before the end of 2019. It is possible that we could see margins expand several more quarters, but then what? We have already seen a 100+ basis point drop in the intermediate to long end of the yield curve in less than a year. This movement, along with the inverted yield curve, has put immediate pressure on our asset yields. Loan yields have crept up slowly over the last few years. They haven’t exploded, however, as competition for loans has been intense. Many loans are priced off the Wall Street Journal Prime Rate, which will move downward with the Fed rate cuts. In preparation for lower rates, bankers may already be implementing interest rate floors and making more fixed-rate loans as their customers and markets allow. Lastly, we won’t have the benefit of dropping our cost of funds from a significantly higher level (55% of the fed funds rate) like we did in 2007 and 2008, which spurred initial margin expansion. We will find the floor on our cost of funds much more quickly this time around. How do you fight off margin compression? 1. Review your current asset liability management strategy. Ask yourself if your bank is well positioned for a decline in interest rates. Today, the majority of banks are positioned for a rise in interest rates, as this was the focus for many years. 2. Resist the urge to stay short, as inverted yield curves are often followed by falling rates, especially on the short end. DIRECTORS / SENIOR MANAGEMENT Dale Sheller Senior Vice President, Financial Strategies Group The Baker Group dsheller@GoBaker.com The Baker Group is a Preferred Service Provider of the Indiana Bankers Association and an IBA Diamond Associate Member.
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