The Good Despite weaknesses in specific sectors of the economy, overall job growth and unemployment have remained resilient in the face of perceived economic pressures. The inflation rate in December fell to 3.4% vs. 6.5% a year earlier, and the Federal Reserve has hinted at lowering interest rates soon in response. While current rates are moderate compared to standards set in the ‘70s and ‘80s, cutting interest rates will certainly be a boon for the nearly-decimated mortgage industry and other lenders. The Bad Despite those promising economic indicators, other data signals potential challenges ahead: • A December 2023 study by renowned academics for the National Bureau of Economic Research indicated that about 44% of banks’ office loans are underwater (equity-to-loan value), with vacancies soaring. The study noted that a 10% default rate on broader commercial real estate (CRE) loans would result in about $80B in bank losses. Some fear that the drag of higher rates on the 1-4 family housing sector has created a multifamily housing bubble. • The research group MSCI Real Capital Analytics reported last summer that the community and regional bank share of the U.S. CRE market had exploded from 17% to 27% just since the pandemic. While the smaller banks have increased their CRE loans, investors and larger institutions have shed CRE exposures due to credit quality concerns and heightened regulatory scrutiny. • Weaknesses in the trucking sector were at the heart of a recent Midwest bank failure — the first credit quality focused closure in quite a while. • There’s a growing dichotomy between consumers living paycheck-to-paycheck (and running up credit card levels to historic heights) and those with strong balance sheets and investment resources. While this issue may be primarily affecting the credit union industry, it could impact bank performance as well. • The chart on the next page of historical data from the “QwickAnalytics® National Performance Trends Report” (based on the proprietary QwickAnalytics Community Bank Index (QCBI) of true community banks) clearly indicates an approximate two-year lag between the end of rate hikes and Mortgage Investment Services Corporation 22316 Midland Drive • Shawnee, KS • 66226 • 913-390-1010 NMLS# 194708 • A Kansas licensed mortgage company #MC 0001182 Missouri Residential Mortgage Loan Broker Licence # 10-1912 Oklahome Mortgage Broker #MB001953 Colorado License #100044344 Nebraska Licensed Mortgage Company NMLS#194708 Arkansas Licensed Mortgage Company License #124530 20+ Years! Depend On Us! For 20+ years, community banks in the Midwest have depended on MISC’s expert mortgage services for their customers. • Free Loan Officer Training & Webinars •Offer all secondary market loan programs: VA, FHA, USDA/RD, Conventional & Jumbo •Earn more fee income with less risk Call or email today. Let’s discuss how MISC can help you! Andrew Holtgraves, Senior Vice President Cell: 913-558-2555 Email: Andrew@MISCHomeLoans.com 7 In Touch
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