383,471 424,044 429,600 442,000 2022 Actual 2023 Actual 2024 Forecast 2025 Forecast YTD '23 YTD '24 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Sep. thru Sep. '23 to '24 YTD '24 TOTAL 320,851 320,676 -0.1% Car 111,837 99,330 -11.2% 31.0% Light Truck 209,014 221,346 5.9% 69.0% Domestic 97,195 90,327 -7.1% 28.2% European 60,986 59,669 -2.2% 18.6% Japanese 131,720 139,422 5.8% 43.5% Korean 30,950 31,258 1.0% 9.7% Third Quarter 2024 Released October, 2024 Market Summary Forecast for County New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in 2022 and 2023, and Auto Outlook’s projections for all of 2024 and 2025. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. DOWN 14.0% vs. ‘20 UP 10.6% vs. ‘21 UP 1.3% vs. ‘22 UP 2.9% vs. ‘23 Los Angeles Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the LA County new vehicle market FORECAST County New Vehicle Market Predicted to Increase 2.9% in 2025 Los Angeles County new vehicle market is stuck in neutral » As shown on the following page, U.S. equivalent SAAR levels in the county stood at a middling 14.0 million units in 3Q ‘24. » Lower interest rates, falling inflation, increasing employment, and rising incentives are helping with consumer affordability. » As mentioned in the previous release, heightened anxiety due to the election and geopolitical unrest has impacted consumer confidence. This is keeping some new vehicle purchasers on the sidelines. » Longer term determinants are positive. Pent up demand from five years of below average sales is significant and affordability will continue to improve, but the sales recovery will likely be gradual. Small increase is predicted in 2025 (see graph). Below is a review of key trends in the Los Angeles County new vehicle market. County market has under-performed the Nation so far this year County new light vehicle registrations were essentially unchanged during the first nine months of 2024 vs. year-earlier levels. National retail market was up 2.2%. New vehicle registrations predicted to improve 1.3% for all of 2024; small increase likely in 2025 Registrations for all of this year are predicted to approach 430,000 units and improve slightly from 2023. Market is expected to increase by less than 3% next year (see graph below). Battery electric vehicle market share increased from 2Q to 3Q ‘24 Higher incentives have given a boost to county BEV sales. Electric vehicle market share increased from 24.9% in 2Q ‘24 to 26.7% in 3Q. Franchised dealerships post big gains in BEV market Franchised dealership BEV sales increased 45.8% during the first nine months of this year versus year earlier. Sales by direct sellers were off 2.5%. Hybrid and plug-In vehicle sales out-pace industry so far this year Combined market share for hybrids and plug-in vehicles is 17.7% so far this year, up from 14.0% in 2023. Hyundai, Lexus, Land Rover, GMC, and Honda have largest gains in 2024 New vehicle registrations for each of the five brands were up by more than 10% in the first nine months of this year versus year earlier. Tesla registrations fell 5.6% (see page 4). Registrations increased by more than 5% for six brands during the past five years The overall market declined 13% from January through September of this year versus the total in 2019. Ten brands outperformed the market during the five year period. (See page 5 for long term sales analysis.) Tesla, BMW, and Hyundai are top sellers in BEV market; Toyota and Honda are hybrid leaders. Tesla accounted for 53.4% of the county BEV market so far this year, BMW and Hyundai were second and third highest, but combined share was just 12.3%. Toyota and Honda accounted for 71.1% of the hybrid vehicle market (see page 7). 22
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