Pub. 5 Issue 4

27 Covering Data thru September 2020 Los Angeles Auto Outlook At Auto Outlook, we strive to provide sound and accurate analyses and forecasts based upon the data available to us. However, our forecasts are derived from third-party data and contain a number of assumptions made by Auto Outlook and its management, including, without limitation, the accuracy of the data compiled. As a result, Auto Outlook can make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the data we provide or the forecasts or projections that we make based upon such data. Auto Outlook expressly disclaims any such warranties, and undue reliance should not be placed on any such data, forecasts, projections, or predictions. Auto Outlook undertakes no obligation to update or revise any predictions or forecasts, whether as a result of any new data, the occurrence of future events, or otherwise. Los Angeles County New Vehicle Market Dashboard 121,500 new vehicle purchases will be postponed during 2020 and 2021, representing about 26% of sales in an average year MARKET PERFORMANCE DURING PAST TWO YEARS Los Angeles County Quarterly Registrations Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Converted to Equivalent U.S. New Vehicle Market SAAR (millions of units) The graph on the left provides an easily recognizable way to gauge the strength of the county market. It shows quarterly reg- istrations in the county, based on a seasonally adjusted an- nual rate. These figures are then indexed to SAAR sales figures for the U.S. new vehicle market. So just like in the national mar- ket, when the quarterly SAAR is above 17 million units, the county market is strong, 15 mil- lion is about average, and below 13 million is weak. Quarterly registrations in the county plum- meted to a U.S. equivalent level of 8.5 million units in the Sec- ond Quarter, and recovered to a better, but still not great 14.1 million in the Third Quarter. PENT UP DEMAND County market forecasts for 2020 and 2021 Before and after onset of COVID Pandemic Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Historical Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Forecast projections: Auto Outlook. 15.5 15.8 15.6 16.6 14.8 8.5 14.1 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Millions 467000 458000 385500 418000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 2020 2021 Forecast generated in early 2020 Current forecast  AUTO OUTLOOK — continued from page 26