relatively short period of time of 10 years or less. These may be soon-tobe empty nesters, or possibly expect to move for employment reasons. If the borrowers do prepay before the first reset date arrives, they’ve saved some interest costs and didn’t expose themselves to higher reset rates. Current Examples Given the profiles and behaviors of the borrowers, the cash flows that hybrids produce are substantial. The loans have fully amortizing 30-year terms, so not a lot of principal is scheduled to amortize initially, but an investor can expect some early activity. Then, as the first reset date approaches, the prepayments speed up even more, sometimes dramatically. Some models predict paydowns of 25% or more annually during the fixed rate window, and even faster in the last few years before the initial reset. For many community banks, fast prepayments are exactly what they want in 2023. Clearly, this was not the case in 2020 and 2021 when banks were drowning in liquidity and interest rates were at record lows. Another piece of good news is that current market prices for these newly-issued hybrids are near par, usually between 100 and 101. This means that significant paydowns won’t have much impact on your yields. Perhaps even better: the inverted yield curve makes the hybrids with the shortest first reset date (weighted average roll, or WAR) the highest yielding, at least until the WAR. For example, a GNMA hybrid with a 36-month roll date, that starts with a full 5% coupon, is currently available at just a slight premium. This significantly out-yields some longer MBS, at least for the next three years. There’s more to the ARMs story that we have time and space for here (e.g., rate caps), but it’s fair to say hybrids are worth a portfolio manager’s look in early 2023. You may decide they’re virtual bargains, and that your security inventory should pivot and take down a supply. Jim Reber (jreber@icbasecurities.com) is president and CEO of ICBA Securities, ICBA’s institutional, fixed-income broker-dealer for community banks. Closing SBA loans keeps doors open. Call 800.340.7304 to start www.holtandmon.com Your customers have never needed capital more than they do right now. Plus you need to offset narrowing margins by increasing noninterest fee income. SBA/USDA lending is the perfect answer. And ICBA recommends just one provider to make the process hassle-free: Holtmeyer & Monson. Give customers exactly what they need, at no net cost to your bank. Small businesses count on your expertise. You can count on ours. In addition to the monthly cash flow, ARMs also can help control interest rate risk for banks that are exposed to rising rates. The Community Banker 21
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