Pub. 12 2024 Issue 1

SPREAD THE WEALTH SOME BOND SECTORS PERFORMED BETTER THAN OTHERS IN 2023 BY JIM REBER, PRESIDENT AND CEO, ICBA SECURITIES As we have navigated the holiday season and hopefully had some time to wrap up some gifts as well as a successful 2023, let’s now spend a few minutes looking into pockets of relative value in the bond market. To get there, we should remind ourselves of the vagaries and ironies of fixed-income investing. In my 35 years of portfolio management participation, I’ve noticed some recurring themes and doctrines, which have both positives and less-than-positives: • Higher rates = lower prices. • Selling bonds at a loss, versus a gain, has positive cash flow implications. • Community banks buy more securities in lower rate periods. • Higher coupons have less price volatility than lower coupons. • Yield spreads usually widen when rates fall. Let’s stay with this last bullet point for a minute. In practice, this means the value of a “risk” asset, which we’re defining here as anything other than a treasury note, will improve less than a similar duration treasury, given a drop in rates. There are several reasons for this reaction. One is that rates fall when investors expect the economy to slow down, so presumably, credit quality will become sketchier. Another is that the lower market rates translate into greater call risk since the likelihood of a bond ending up “in the money” to be redeemed increases. GUEST ARTICLE 12 Community Banker

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