… IS NO LONGER By December 2023, the top quartile had an allocation to munis of 26%, or just half what it had only 24 months earlier. Some of those dollars migrated into various types of amortizing securities, but the bulk of the reinvesting went into — wait for it — treasury bonds. The numbers are quite astonishing. In the fourth quarter, fully 60% of new purchases were treasuries. They weren’t necessarily long maturities, either, as the treasury holdings, on average, had a duration of well under two years. And remember that we’re talking about the top quartile. A skeptic would suppose that the erstwhile long-duration, heavy tax-free portfolios — and their built-in yield advantage — have given up some ground to the more conservative lower quartiles. One would be even more confident of that supposition knowing that the effective duration of the top quartile has shrunk in the past two years from 4.5 years to 3.9. One would be wrong. The yield gap between quartiles one and four was 124 basis points (1.24%) in December 2021; now, the difference is 173 basis points or 1.73%. WHAT JUST HAPPENED The reasons for the “dump munis, buy treasuries” trade can be summarized in these three factors: 1. The shape of the curve: The inverted curve, which has persisted since July 2022, has made longer-yielding bonds less attractive than shorter ones. The longest securities in a typical community bank portfolio are munis, which is a good news/bad news proposition for inverted curves. They have lost less value than others since 2022, but the current market yields for them are below those of lower-duration bonds. 2. The supply/demand dynamics of the municipal market: Munis really haven’t held much value for corporations since 2018, when the marginal tax rates for C Corps dropped to 21%. The retail demand for munis has continued apace, as individual tax rates didn’t drop as much. And finally, as we’ve discussed in this space before, the entire municipal bond universe has not grown for well over 10 years. This has pushed yields on even 10-plus-year munis below those of similar maturity treasuries. 3. The “higher for longer” narrative: Some portfolio managers are buying into the “higher for longer” narrative for short-term interest rates. The first quarter of the year saw expectations for actual cuts to fed funds pushed into the second half of 2024, and the number and size of the cuts declined, too. This has kept the inverted curve intact and has made even money-market treasuries the choice of engaged portfolio managers. The result is that the highest-yielding and more riskaverse bank portfolios these days have a heavy dose of short treasuries. The top quartile at the start of 2024 had a full 14% allocation, which is a high-water mark for the past quarter century. As our friends from KISS might say, community bankers can buy short treasuries all night, and enjoy the results every day. Jim Reber (jreber@icbasecurities.com) is president and CEO of ICBA Securities, ICBA’s institutional, fixed-income broker-dealer for community banks. EDUCATION ON TAP Bond Accounting at Your Service ICBA Securities’ exclusive broker, Stifel, offers an industry-leading bond accounting package that’s scalable to your community bank’s portfolio at very competitive prices. For more information or to see a demo, contact your Stifel sales rep. THANKING OUR SPONSOR, UNITED BANKERS’ BANK UBB.COM At United Bankers’ Bank, “First for Your Success” is more than just our tagline; it’s a promise and a guiding principle that establishes the success of each and every customer as our number one priority. UBB pioneered the bankers’ bank model and for more than 47 years we have placed the needs and success of our community bank customers first and above all else. You can count on UBB to be a dedicated ally for community banking today, tomorrow and into the future. Your success is our success, and at UBB, we are always First for Your Success. Community Banker 11
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