at the end of 2022, there were three times that many gas stations — where refueling takes a small fraction of the time necessary to charge a battery. Meanwhile, state and federal regulators are pushing EVs harder than ever. The EPA has proposed that 67% of new cars sold be zero emission by 2032 — an approach even beyond the standards adopted by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). The CARB rules adopted in 2022 are supported by the automakers and allow for up to 20% of vehicles manufactured for sale in California and CARB states to be plug-in hybrids, a much more realistic approach than the EPA has laid out. But current incentives for EV charging infrastructure and consumer incentives do not appear sufficient in pushing EVs across the chasm — at least not until fast charging is ubiquitous enough to ease massmarket consumers’ concerns. A POTENTIAL SOLUTION If the goal of regulators is to decrease overall vehicle emissions, public policy should be focused on turning over the combustion fleet, getting consumers used to charging, and getting cleaner vehicles on the road. Promoting plug-in hybrids may be the way to get EVs across the chasm. Many plug-in models utilize smaller batteries — with 20- to 50-mile electric ranges — in tandem with gasoline engines. These vehicles can achieve zero emission commutes and are easy to charge at home with a 120- or 240-volt charger. Gasoline backups will also eliminate anxiety about finding an open fast charger. Plug-in hybrids continue to sell well, with sales up 51% year-over-year. It’s hard to see a retail environment in 2032 where 67% of new-car sales are fully electric EVs (or 100% EV by 2035 here in New Jersey, as Governor Murphy has proposed). However, it’s very easy to see a 2032 where a majority of new-car sales are plug-in hybrids. Plug-ins would help ease consumers into the transition toward EVs, get consumers used to charging, create the demand necessary for investments in the charging network, and build a bridge across the chasm to bring EVs to the mass market. State and federal policymakers should ensure that plug-in hybrids are included in future regulations and incentive programs. Doing so would ensure that early majority consumers can make their next vehicle an EV. 26 NEW JERSEY auto retailer
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