Pub. 19 2020-2021 Issue 2

N E W J E R S E Y C O A L I T I O N O F A U T O M O T I V E R E T A I L E R S 27 new jersey auto retailer W W W . N J C A R . O R G which is primarily a function of the driving-age popula- tion. Actual registrations typically move above and below the baseline due to changing economic conditions. Of course, in 2020, the shift below baseline occurred due to the pandemic. Auto Outlook estimates that approx- imately 63,000 new vehicle purchases are likely to be postponed in the state by the end of 2021, but they will eventually occur. Sales will get a boost by changes in behavior caused by the virus. People are reluctant to board a plane, get on a train or take a shared ride. Using your own vehicle is the best safe haven from the risks inherent in other modes of transportation. When the threat from the virus wanes, some will return to planes, trains, and shared rides, but the advantages of having your own vehicle will remain. Vehicle ownership provides freedom, independence, and a sense of personal control. These benefits are garnering more attention right now, and should still impact con- sumer behavior, even when COVID-19 fades. Wrap up: The chances of a fast recovery seem slim, but there is more “upside potential” for the outlook than downside. The likelihood that the economic slump will significantly worsen is low. The introduction of a vac- cine or highly effective treatment for the virus would significantly increase the slope of the upward trend and decrease the frequency of the stops and starts. Jeff Foltz is President of Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent automotive market research firm. He can be reached at autooutlook@me.com. 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 New vehicle registrations Years State Annual New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations 2015 thru 2019, 2020 and 2021 Forecast Blue line represents trendline - Grey line shows actual new vehicle registrations. Registrations fell well below trendline in Historical data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Actual 501508 498864 485757 419268 352920 399001 419420 440965 480098 481231 509452 534644 508996 515728 519846 397500 450500 Trend 464577 465066 465555 466044 466533 501508 467511 468000 468489 468978 469467 469956 470445 470934 471423 471912 472401