19 the consumer price index has risen. Fortunately, the percent change from the previous year is a little more than 5%, which is far less than the 1980 peak of almost 15%. • The state has supply constraints and price instability. Labor and housing (especially affordable housing) are both in short supply. The supply chain stress index is higher than before the pandemic and is worse than during the Great Recession. Economists see cost-push and demand-pull inflation. The year-over quarterly housing price appreciation in Utah and Idaho is bigger than anywhere else in the country. Utah is at 28.3%, and Idaho is at 37.1%. In the past, Utah’s supply outpaced demand. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute breaks the numbers down as follows: • From 1971-1980, Utah had 174,272 housing units and 150,669 households. • From 1981-1990, the numbers were 108,382 versus 88,670. • From 1991-2000, the need was 170,206 units for 164,008 households. • From 2001-2010, it was 211,115 for 176,411. From 2010 to 2017, the trend reversed, and there were more households than dwelling units. That trend reversed again in 2018, but Utah is still short on affordable housing, and the combination of high prices and rents is delaying firsttime buyer home purchases. A Deseret News article by Katie McKellar appeared Oct. 14, 2021. It said Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University recently ranked housing in Ogden, Salt Lake City and Provo as among the most overpriced markets in the U.S. UtahRealEstate.com said residential units in 2011 took an average of 87 days to sell after being listed. By the end of July 2021, the number was down to six days. The Federal Housing Finance Agency found that the annual percentage change in Utah housing prices for 2020 was 22.7%. Although Natalie is optimistic about Utah’s economic outlook, she also sees upcoming risks. She recommends continuing to watch consumer confidence and the effect of COVID-19 on the country. With that recommendation in mind, it makes sense to look at the Black Friday weekend. In The New York Times, Nov. 29, 2021, Sapna Maheshwari reported that foot traffic increased 48% from 2020 but was still 28% less than in 2019. She also reported that, according to Sensormatic Solutions, in-store shopping peaked Friday from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. Online customers spent $8.9 billion on Black Friday and $5.1 billion on Thanksgiving Day. Cyber Monday was 1.4% less than last year, but Adobe Analytics still reported a sales total of $10.7 billion for 2021. Amazon reported recordbreaking sales starting Black Friday and ending Cyber Monday, but the company didn’t list specifics. Experts think that lower overall sales can be attributed partially to heavier than normal spending before the holiday. Most people are aware of the supply chain problems and have chosen to get shopping done earlier rather than risk being unable to buy their specific picks. Consumer confidence over the last year has risen and then dropped. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute has a monthly index to measure consumer confidence. In October 2020, the index was at 87.2. It rose to a high of 96.4 in March 2021, but in October 2021, it fell again to 81.5. Utah’s economy presents successes and challenges. But if any state is likely to meet the current challenges successfully, Utah is that state. 3 According to the 2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates collected by the U.S. Census Bureau, the median age in Utah is 30.8. That’s good because young people tend to be healthy, inexpensive to insure and tech-savvy.
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