Pub. 2 2019-2020 Issue 4

6 Roy who won the Booker prize in 1997 for TheGodof SmallThings and said something interesting about pandemics. Arundhati Roy wrote: “Historically, pandemics have forced humans to break with the past and imagine their world anew. This one is no different. It is a portal, a gateway between one world and the next.” When you look at trends, it is essential to distinguish between relatively minor cycli- cal trends. Cyclical trends are not that big, and they tend to repeat themselves, but structural trends are orders of magnitude larger and can change the world. Natalie listed the following structural trends that she thinks are worth watching: • A new banking paradigm: During the next couple of years or more, the federal funds rate will stay close to zero. That rate affects the discount rate and the prime rate. Reducing the interest rate to support the economy won’t work anymore. The Federal Reserve has decided to review its monetary policy framework every five years, approximately, to better respond to the current banking challenges. • De-globalization, reshoring and shorter supply chains: The pandemic has made it very apparent that long supply chains can be easily broken by disruptions such as pandemics. That’s good news for Utah. As companies shorten supply chains and bring them back to the U.S., Utah is in a great position geographically to benefit from trade conducted more locally. • The pink-collar recession: The industries that havebeenhit hardest byCOVID-19are also industries that employmanywomen. Also, as primary caregivers, many women left the workforce to take care of family members suchasyoungchildren. Although many men lost their employment as well, more women than men were affected. For example, 3 million women stopped working in April 2020 versus about 2.75 millionmen. In September 2020, almost 1 millionwomen stoppedworking, whereas withmen, thenumberwascloser to250,000 thousand. • “Zoom town”migration: Remote work was suddenly the only way many companies could continue to stay in business. Since manypeoplewerenolonger tiedtoaspecific geographic location because of work, they soon became interested in moving closer to family and small towns. The net migra- tion forecast for 2020 inUtah is 22,000.That number represents thedifferencebetween thepeoplemovingtoUtahminusthepeople movingaway fromUtah.That is down from 2019 and 2018; the number in 2019 was 24,987, and in 2018 it was 23,200. • Tech-enabled services: Thanks to internet services and companies like Zoom, which make it possible to hold virtual meetings on a large or small scale, employees have been able to work from home offices like never before. • The reckoning of commercial real estate: Owners of hotels, restaurants and office buildings have seen a drastic drop in demand for their services. That will affect the commercial building industry. Vaccines are going to be an essential tool to protect people worldwide from the corona- virus. The first vaccines are probably going tobe available sometime before March 31, 2021. The last may not arrive until April 1, 2022. When researchers decide to start giving vaccines to the general population, it’s expected that medical professionals will distribute 25 million doses in the U.S. 3 Vaccines are going to be an essential tool to protect people worldwide from the coronavirus. The first vaccines are probably going to be available sometime before March 31, 2021. continued from page 5