129,282 145,998 131,911 138,300 2020 Actual 2021 Actual 2022 Actual 2023 Forecast Covering First Quarter 2023 Released April 2023 San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market Market Summary YTD '22 YTD '23 % Chg. Mkt. Share March March '22 to '23 YTD '23 TOTAL 33,813 33,984 0.5% Car 9,859 9,586 -2.8% 28.2% Light Truck 23,954 24,398 1.9% 71.8% Domestic 10,942 12,037 10.0% 35.4% European 5,288 5,222 -1.2% 15.4% Japanese 14,474 13,299 -8.1% 39.1% Korean 3,109 3,426 10.2% 10.1% Forecast for County New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations DOWN 9.3% vs. ‘19 UP 12.9% vs. ‘20 DOWN 9.6% vs. ‘21 UP 4.8% vs. ‘22 Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2020 through 2022 and Auto Outlook’s baseline projection for 2023. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. Below is a review of key trends in the San Diego County new vehicle market. Results during 1Q 2023 County new light vehicle registrations increased by less than 1% during the first three months of 2023 vs. weak year-earlier levels. National retail market fell 1.0%. As shown on page 2, equivalent U.S. SAAR levels stayed below 15 million units, an indicator that county new vehicle sales remained subdued. 2023 Forecast According to the baseline forecast, registrations are expected to exceed 138,000 units this year, a 7% improvement from 2022. See sidebar to right for alternative upside and downside projections. Registrations are predicted to increase 7.3% from April thru December of this year versus the same period in 2022. Key determinants for the market During the past three years, the new vehicle market has been impacted by a series of speed bumps that have put the brakes on sales. The pandemic, supply chain issues, depleted inventories, rising interest rates, weakening consumer affordability, and concern over the banking system have pushed sales below trend levels. Despite this lengthy list, primary factors driving the market during 2023 are fairly evident. Following three years of below average sales, pent-up demand is at elevated levels as the volume of postponed purchases continues to grow. Weakening consumer affordability will hold back the release of pent-up demand, but improving vehicle inventories should be sufficient to push sales above current levels. Battery Electric Vehicle sales gains BEV market share in the county increased to 20.5% in the First Quarter of 2023, up from 14.2% a year earlier. Franchised dealership share of the BEV market improved by 13.4 share points so far this year (see page 4). Light truck sales There are signs that the climb in light truck market share could be reaching its peak. Light trucks (consisting of SUVs, pickups, and vans) accounted for 39.8% of the market in 2012, and increased to 70.9% last year. In the First Quarter of 2023, however, light truck share was up just one point versus year earlier. Brands that fared best in early 2023 Among the top 25 sellers in the county market, Chevrolet, Volvo, Hyundai, Tesla, and Land Rover had the largest percentage gains in the First Quarter of this year. Toyota, Tesla, Honda, Ford, and Chevrolet were market leaders. Top selling models in San Diego County Tesla Model Y, Tesla Model 3, Toyota RAV4, Toyota Tacoma, Honda Civic, Ford F-Series, Honda Accord, Chevrolet Silverado, Toyota Corolla, and Toyota Camry were the top 10 sellers so far this year. County economic conditions Total employment in the county was 1.55 million, just above pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment rate was 3.7% (see page 3). NEW VEHICLE MARKET FORECAST County Market Predicted to Increase 7.3% for Remainder of 2023 Outlook for San Diego County New Retail Light Vehicle Market Baseline scenario: 138,300 up 7.0% vs. ‘22 Alternative upside: 145,800 up 10.5% vs. ‘22 Alternative downside: 131,800 down 0.1% vs. ‘22 2023 Annual Forecast 24 SAN DIEGO DEALER
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