129,281 145,995 131,908 143,600 2020 Actual 2021 Actual 2022 Actual 2023 Forecast Covering Second Quarter 2023 Released July 2023 San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market Market Summary Forecast for County New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2020 through 2022 and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2023. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. DOWN 9.3% vs. ‘19 UP 12.9% vs. ‘20 DOWN 9.6% vs. ‘21 UP 8.9% vs. ‘22 YTD '22 YTD '23 % Chg. Mkt. Share June June '22 to '23 YTD '23 TOTAL 67,696 71,367 5.4% Car 19,337 20,004 3.4% 28.0% Light Truck 48,359 51,363 6.2% 72.0% Domestic 21,385 25,922 21.2% 36.3% European 10,488 10,284 -1.9% 14.4% Japanese 28,761 27,989 -2.7% 39.2% Korean 7,062 7,172 1.6% 10.0% NEW VEHICLE MARKET FORECAST Recovery Gains Momentum; 2Q ‘23 Registrations Up 10.2% vs. 2Q ‘22 Below is a list of 10 key trends and developments in the San Diego County new vehicle market: 1. County new retail light vehicle registrations increased 5.4% in the first half of this year versus year-earlier levels. The U.S. market was up by 3.9%. 2. The pace of improvement should pick up steam in the second half of the year. The county market is predicted to increase 12.5% from July through December of 2023 versus weak results in the second half of 2022 when supply chain interruptions significantly impacted sales. 3. As shown on the graph below, registrations for all of this year are projected to exceed 143,000 units and improve 8.9% from 2022. 4. Light truck market share increased slightly from 71.4% during the first six months of 2022 to 72.0% this year. 5. Fueled by gains from Tesla, Domestic brand registrations were up 21.2% so far this year and market share reached 36.3%. 6. Battery electric vehicles accounted for 22.1% of the market in the first half of this year, up from 14.3% last year. 7. Brands with the largest percentage increases in registrations during the first six months of this year (among top 30 brands): Rivian, Tesla, Chrysler, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Honda, Genesis, Volvo, Audi, and MINI. 8. Three biggest segments in the county are Compact SUV, Luxury Compact SUV, and Small Car. 9. County market share leaders in the first half of 2023 were Toyota, Tesla, Honda, Ford, and Chevrolet. 10. Top ten selling vehicles in San Diego County market: Tesla Model Y, Tesla Model 3, Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, Honda Civic, Toyota Tacoma, Honda Accord, Chevrolet Silverado, Toyota Camry, and Ford F-Series. Outlook for next two years: New vehicle market predicted to improve, but sales should remain close to average levels A significant number of new vehicle purchases have been postponed since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Estimated pent-up demand in the county market has reached 45,516 units, approximately 36% of average annual registrations (see page 3). It has been our contention that once vehicle production recovered, this “stored potential” would more than offset the drag on sales resulting from higher interest rates, a slowing economy, and weakening vehicle affordability. And the 10.2% year-over-year increase in 2Q registrations sends a strong signal that this is indeed the case. The market should have enough gas in the tank to move higher this year, with recovery almost certainly lasting into 2024. NCDA.COM 21
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