145,950 131,906 142,794 148,000 2021 Actual 2022 Actual 2023 Actual 2024 Forecast YTD '23 YTD '24 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Mar. thru Mar. '23 to '24 YTD '24 TOTAL 34,011 35,561 4.6% Car 9,521 9,231 -3.0% 26.0% Light Truck 24,490 26,330 7.5% 74.0% Domestic 12,044 12,045 0.0% 33.9% European 5,222 5,176 -0.9% 14.6% Japanese 13,311 14,971 12.5% 42.1% Korean 3,434 3,369 -1.9% 9.5% Released April, 2024 Market Summary Forecast for County New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2021 through 2023 and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2024. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. UP 13.0% vs. ‘20 DOWN 9.6% vs. ‘21 UP 8.3% vs. ‘22 UP 3.6% vs. ‘23 San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market FORECAST County New Vehicle Market Increased in 1Q ‘24 Primary Factors Driving the County New Vehicle Market » County unemployment rate was 4.7% in February and total employment exceeded pre-pandemic levels. » Growth in personal income has largely kept pace with inflation. Household wealth is at record-high levels. » Consumer confidence has fluctuated a bit over the past few months, but is well above the lows in 2022 when inflation concerns were paramount. » High interest rates continue to put a squeeze on affordability, but the prospects for lower rates later this year, falling vehicle prices, and strong wage gains should lead to improvement in the second half of 2024. » Pent up demand is the biggest positive for the county market. Auto Outlook estimates that nearly 50,000 new vehicle purchases have been postponed since the onset of the pandemic and ensuing supply chain issues. Below is a review of key trends in the San Diego County new vehicle market. Results during 1Q 2024 County new light vehicle registrations increased 4.6% during the first three months of 2024 vs. year-earlier levels. National retail market was up 6.9%. As shown on page 2, equivalent U.S. SAAR levels remained at 15 million units in the First Quarter of this year. 2024 Forecast According to Auto Outlook’s forecast, registrations are expected to approach 150,000 units this year and increase 3.6% from 2023. That projection is 12% higher than the total in 2022 when the market was significantly impacted by product shortages, but is still below the recent high of 159,567 units in 2017. Key determinants for the market The shaded box on the right reviews the primary forecast determinants. Pent-up demand is still significant and the county labor market is strong. Vehicle affordability is still a concern, but should improve as the year progresses. As pointed out in the previous release of Auto Outlook, barring any unforeseen negative shocks (such as the possible escalation of conflict in the Middle East), we think the new vehicle market could be stronger than expected in 2024. Tracking alternative powertrain sales County BEV registrations were up 14% in the First Quarter of this year versus a year earlier, and market share increased to 22.5%. Gains have levelled off during the past few quarters, however. Hybrid registrations exceeded 5,300 units in 1Q ‘24 and improved 52% versus year earlier. Plug in hybrid market was up 25% (see page 6). Brands that fared best in early 2024 Among the top 25 sellers in the county market, Lexus, Rivian, Toyota, Honda, and Audi had the largest percentage gains in the First Quarter of this year. Toyota, Tesla, Honda, Ford, and Chevrolet were market share leaders. Top selling models in San Diego County Tesla Model Y, Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, Tesla Model 3, Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Toyota Corolla, Chevrolet Silverado, Ford FSeries, and Honda Accord were the top 10 sellers so far this year. First Quarter 2024 20 SAN DIEGO DEALER
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