131,619 142,562 143,100 146,300 2022 Actual 2023 Actual 2024 Forecast 2025 Forecast YTD '23 YTD '24 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Sep. thru Sep. '23 to '24 YTD '24 TOTAL 107,749 107,033 -0.7% Car 30,919 26,980 -12.7% 25.2% Light Truck 76,830 80,053 4.2% 74.8% Domestic 38,812 35,148 -9.4% 32.8% European 15,111 14,777 -2.2% 13.8% Japanese 42,810 45,798 7.0% 42.8% Korean 11,016 11,310 2.7% 10.6% Third Quarter 2024 Released October, 2024 Market Summary Forecast for County New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. Data sourced from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in 2022 and 2023, and Auto Outlook’s projections for all of 2024 and 2025. Historical data sourced from Experian Automotive. DOWN 9.6% vs. ‘20 UP 8.3% vs. ‘21 UP 0.4% vs. ‘22 UP 2.2% vs. ‘23 San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market FORECAST County New Vehicle Market Predicted to Increase Slightly in 2025 San Diego County new vehicle market is stuck in neutral » As shown on the following page, U.S. equivalent SAAR levels in the county stood at a middling 14.3 million units in 3Q ‘24. » Lower interest rates, falling inflation, increasing employment, and rising incentives are helping with consumer affordability. » As mentioned in the previous release, heightened anxiety due to the election and geopolitical unrest has impacted consumer confidence. This is keeping some new vehicle purchasers on the sidelines. » Longer term determinants are positive. Pent up demand from five years of below average sales is significant and affordability will continue to improve, but the sales recovery will likely be gradual. Small increase is predicted in 2025 (see graph). Below is a review of key trends in the San Diego County new vehicle market. County market has under-performed the Nation so far this year County new light vehicle registrations slipped 0.7% during the first nine months of 2024 vs. year-earlier levels. National retail market was up 2.2%. New vehicle registrations predicted to increase slightly for all of 2024; another small increase likely in 2025 Registrations for all of this year are predicted to exceed 143,000 units and improve slightly from 2023. Market is expected to increase by 2.2% next year (see below). Battery electric vehicle market share increased from 2Q to 3Q ‘24 Higher incentives have given a boost to county BEV sales. Electric vehicle market share increased from 23.0% in 2Q ‘24 to 24.2% in 3Q. Franchised dealerships post big gains in BEV market Franchised dealership BEV sales increased 23.5% during the first nine months of this year versus year earlier. Sales by direct sellers were off 6.5%. Hybrid and plug-In vehicle sales out-pace industry so far this year Combined market share for hybrids and plug-in vehicles is 19.3% so far this year, up from 15.7% in 2023. Lexus, Rivian, GMC, Toyota, Honda, BMW, and Land Rover have largest gains in 2024 New vehicle registrations for each of the seven brands were up by more than 5% in the first nine months of this year versus year earlier. Tesla registrations fell 8.6% (see page 4). Registrations increased by more than 24% for six brands during the past five years The overall market declined 1% from January through September of this year versus the total in 2019. Ten brands out-performed the market during the five year period. (See page 5 for long term sales analysis.) Tesla, Hyundai, and BMW are top sellers in BEV market; Toyota and Honda are hybrid leaders. Tesla accounted for 56.7% of the county BEV market so far this year, Hyundai and BMW were second and third highest, but combined share was just 10.6%. Toyota and Honda accounted for 67.1% of the hybrid vehicle market (see page 7).
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