Pub. 8 2019-2020 Issue 4

PUB YR 8 2019-2020 | ISSUE 4 21 Page 2 San Diego Auto Outlook 136000 135000 117850 127500 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 2020 2021 Forecast generated in early 2020 Current forecast San Diego Auto Outlook Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390, Exton, PA 19341 Phone: 610-640-1233 EMail: jfoltz@autooutlook.com Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz Information quoted must be attributed to San Diego Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the New Car Dealers Association San Diego County, and must also include the statement: “Data Source: AutoCount Data from Experian.” Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., October 2020 At Auto Outlook, we strive to provide sound and accurate analyses and forecasts based upon the data available to us. However, our forecasts are derived from third- party data and contain a number of assumptions made by Auto Outlook and its management, including, without limitation, the accuracy of the data compiled. As a result, Auto Outlook can make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or co m pleteness of the data we provide or the forecasts or projections that we make based upon such data. Auto Outlook expressly disclaims any such warranties, and undue reliance should not be placed on any such data, forecasts, projections or predictions. Auto Outlook undertakes no obligation to update or revise any predictions or forecasts, whether as a result of any new data, the occurrence of future events or otherwise. San Diego County New Vehicle Market Dashboard 25,650 new vehicle purchases will be postponed during 2020 and 2021, representing about 21% of sales in an average year MARKET PERFORMANCE DURING PAST TWO YEARS San Diego County Quarterly Registrations Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Converted to Equivalent U.S. New Vehicle Market SAAR (millions of units) The graph on the left provides an easily recognizable way to gauge the strength of the county market. It shows quarterly reg- istrations in the county, based on a seasonally adjusted an- nual rate. These figures are then indexed to SAAR sales figures for the U.S. new - vehicle market. So just like in the national market, when the quarterly SAAR is above 17 million units, the county market is strong, 15 million is about average, and below 13 million is weak. Quarterly registrations in the county plum- meted to a U.S. equivalent level of 9.8 million units in the Second Quarter, and recovered to a better but still not great 14.3 million in the Third Quarter. PENT UP DEMAND County market forecasts for 2020 and 2021 Before and after onset of COVID Pandemic Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Historical Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Forecast projections: Auto Outlook. 15.2 15.7 15.6 16.0 15.2 9.8 14.3 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Millions Continued on page 22